Banco BBVA Argentina’s latest narrative shift comes with a modestly higher fair value target, raised from $16,396 to $16,805, as analysts recalibrate expectations around the bank’s long term potential. A slightly lower discount rate, trimming from 29.35% to 29.30%, reflects marginally reduced perceived risk in the context of both improving macro signals and lingering competitive concerns on capital strength. Stay tuned to see how you can track these evolving assumptions and keep ahead of the next narrative turn in this name.

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🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Citi upgraded Banco BBVA Argentina to Buy from Neutral, more than doubling its price target to ARS 11,800, citing a friendlier post election backdrop that could unlock a more “virtuous credit cycle” and support loan growth.

• Citi highlights improved growth opportunities for Argentine banks and a clearer political runway through the 2027 elections. If sustained, this could underpin better visibility on earnings and justify a higher valuation multiple for BBVA.

• Itau BBA and analyst Pedro Leduc moved the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $15 target, arguing Argentina’s banks are “back on track” after the recent election. This could position BBVA to participate in sector wide recovery in profitability and balance sheet expansion.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Sell rating and $15 target, stressing that BBVA’s Tier 1 ratio at 18% is the weakest among peers and that its already higher loan exposure leaves it less flexible to improve profitability.

• Goldman frames its call within a more balanced stance on the sector after share price rallies driven by lower inflation and better growth. For BBVA, this suggests that much of the cyclical upside may already be reflected in the current valuation relative to its risk profile.

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• Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Citi, and Bank of America, have abandoned plans for a $20B bailout package to Argentina and are instead considering a smaller short term loan, which is pressuring sentiment toward Argentine lenders such as Banco BBVA Argentina.

• Banco BBVA Argentina has been served with a class action lawsuit by consumer group Protegiendo al Consumidor. The suit challenges the constitutionality of Decree 70/2023 provisions that removed caps on punitive interest for credit cards in Buenos Aires Province and demands reimbursement of alleged excess charges plus interest and legal costs.

• The bank has disclosed that the lawsuit is for an indeterminate amount but maintains that, even under a hypothetical adverse ruling, it does not expect a material impact on its assets or core operations. It is continuing to assess the case and refine its legal strategy.