SoundThinking’s latest price target update leaves its core valuation drivers largely intact, with fair value holding steady at $15.50 per share and long term revenue growth assumptions virtually unchanged around 9.11% and a stable risk profile signaled by an 8.61% discount rate. Bulls see this as evidence that the long term public safety tech story remains on track despite near term contract noise, while bears argue that recent delays and a softer 2026 outlook justify a more cautious stance on upside. Read on to see how you can track these shifts in expectations and stay ahead of future narrative changes around the stock.

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🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Lake Street, via analyst Eric Martinuzzi, continues to rate SoundThinking shares as Buy, signaling conviction that the long term story and execution capability remain intact despite recent volatility.

• The firm highlights that the company “remains well positioned,” pointing to a potentially positive outcome on the key Chicago RFP as a driver that could support growth momentum and underpin the current valuation.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Lake Street cut its price target to $14 from $19, a notable reset that reflects concern over a Q3 top line miss tied to contract delays and a softer outlook for 2026, which tempers expectations for upside from here.

• The lower target reflects a more cautious stance on near term execution risk and the timing of revenue conversion from delayed contracts, which could pressure growth and limit multiple expansion if uncertainties persist.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

• Lowered 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $104 million after a 4% year over year decline in third quarter revenues, as delays in several domestic deployments weighed on results. Management still expects the delayed contracts to be recognized in the near future.

• Introduced 2026 guidance that points to faster revenue growth and higher profitability beyond 2025. This signals confidence that current headwinds are temporary and that the long term growth trajectory remains intact.

• Announced CrimeTracer Gen3, a major upgrade that turns the platform into an agency wide crime fighting solution with AI driven analysis, natural language search, and deeper integration across the SafetySmart platform. Key features are scheduled to roll out from mid November 2025 through year end.

• Updated investors on share repurchase activity, completing the buyback of 873,056 shares, or 6.91% of shares outstanding, for $14.62 million under the existing program. This includes 160,271 shares repurchased between July 1 and November 12, 2025 for $1.99 million. The company also reported higher impairment charges on property and equipment of $237,000 in the third quarter versus $54,000 a year earlier.