How Recent Developments Are Rewriting The First Horizon Investment Story

December 17, 2025

First Horizon’s narrative has shifted in recent weeks as analysts recalibrate their expectations, nudging the fair value estimate up to about $25.25 per share from roughly $24.49 while lifting the discount rate to around 7.12% from about 6.93%. These adjustments reflect a slightly stronger long term revenue growth outlook, now assumed at roughly 5.74% annually versus about 5.55%, even as debate intensifies between bulls who see an attractive entry point after the selloff and bears who question the near term strategic catalysts. Read on to see how these evolving assumptions could reshape the story from here and how you can stay current as the narrative continues to develop.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for First Horizon shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on First Horizon.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

  • BofA, Jefferies, Raymond James, and Baird all remain constructive, with ratings at Buy or Outperform and targets clustered around $23 to $27, implying upside from current levels even after the post earnings selloff.

  • BofA and Jefferies highlight solid execution and reaffirmed FY25 guidance, characterizing Q3 as strong and viewing management’s M&A comments as a way to preserve strategic optionality rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals.

  • Raymond James and Baird point to attractive growth and franchise quality, citing benefits from lower rates, counter cyclical businesses, mid single digit loan growth potential in 2026, and still elevated scarcity value that could support a premium valuation over time.

  • Several bullish firms, including Jefferies (cutting its target from $28 to $25) and Raymond James (from $25 to $23), acknowledge near term M&A related overhang and valuation volatility but continue to argue that First Horizon remains in play as a potential target and that the recent pullback looks overdone.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

  • Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to In Line from Outperform and slashed its target to $20 from $26, warning that a near term sale now looks unlikely and that there are limited meaningful upside catalysts despite the sharp earnings related decline.

  • Keefe Bruyette trimmed its target to $23 from $24 and kept a Market Perform rating, arguing that while much of the M&A premium has been priced out, the story is not fully de risked, leaving investors exposed to execution and strategic uncertainty.

  • DA Davidson initiated at Neutral with a $24 target, citing valuation as a key constraint and noting that the shares already trade at an 11% premium to regional bank peers, which could cap upside until First Horizon delivers clearer growth and profitability outperformance.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

NYSE:FHN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NYSE:FHN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
  • The Board of Directors amended the company bylaws to expand the board from 13 to 14 members, a move that points to incremental changes in governance and oversight.

  • The Board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1.2 billion of common stock, with the buyback authorization in place through January 31, 2027.

  • Between October 1 and October 27, 2025, First Horizon repurchased about 6.1 million shares, or 1.22% of shares outstanding. This brought total buybacks under the existing plan to roughly 39.1 million shares, or 7.55%, for $820 million.

  • The company reaffirmed its full year 2025 revenue guidance, projecting revenue to be flat to up 4%. Third quarter 2025 net charge offs rose modestly to $26 million from $24 million a year earlier, signaling slightly higher but still manageable credit costs.

  • The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $25.25 per share from about $24.49, reflecting modestly stronger long term assumptions.

  • The Discount Rate has increased slightly to around 7.12% from about 6.93%, implying a marginally higher required return and risk assessment.

  • Revenue Growth has risen slightly, with the long term annual growth assumption moving to roughly 5.74% from about 5.55%.

  • The Net Profit Margin has edged down marginally to about 27.46% from roughly 27.53%, indicating a very small compression in expected profitability.

  • The Future P/E has increased modestly to approximately 12.4x from about 12.2x, signaling a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Narratives on Simply Wall St turn raw numbers into a living story, letting investors connect their view of a company with forecasts for revenue, earnings, margins and a resulting fair value. Each Narrative links First Horizon’s business drivers to a financial model and compares Fair Value with the current share price to help decide when to buy or sell. Hosted on the Community page used by millions of investors, Narratives update dynamically as fresh news, earnings and analyst revisions come in.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on First Horizon to stay on top of:

  • How share buybacks and capital deployment could affect EPS and Fair Value compared with the current price.

  • Whether mixed M&A optionality and shifting analyst views create a risk or an opportunity.

  • How revenue, margins and the assumed future P/E change as new macro and credit data emerges.

Read the full First Horizon Narrative and see the latest fair value assumptions.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FHN.

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