Fuel price shocks stemming from the Iran War and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are pushing consumers around the world toward EVs. 

Far from the actual battlefields of the Middle East, the Iran War carries inadvertent consequences for our sputtering energy transition. In particular, consumers are taking a new look at an option sitting in plain sight in the transportation sector: electric vehicles (EVs). Particularly with gasoline supplies appearing perilously vulnerable, EVs offer a vestige of personal energy independence in an unpredictable, swirling transportation marketplace.

The Unintended Consequences of a War of Choice

Writing in The New York Times, David Wallace-Wells recently marveled that “…so much could be pulled down the drain by a somewhat goal-less war of choice is partly a result of inept or indifferent planning.” And yet, he continues, “this war is also a new kind of conflict, given shape by fossil fuel turmoil and the uncertainty brought about by the energy transition of the last decade.” By his measure, Wells explains that the implications of this conflict clarify that humans began an energy transition from fossil fuels in the 1970s and now exist in the “messy mid-transition” era.

While actors on each side of the conflict carry out the wishes of their leaders, global consumers are given a mid-transition opportunity to react in real time with their own choices. What can we learn from the choices being made?  

Today, renewable energy options are enhanced anew by offering consumers an independence that rises above the fray of the uncertainty that surrounds the acquisition, trade, and processing of fossil fuels. In short, renewables aren’t directly impacted by what is happening at the Strait of Hormuz!

Mid-transition Creates a Global EV Boom

Prior to the outbreak of the current conflict, the adoption of EVs was most acute in emerging economies, including India, Mexico, and Brazil, which surged to outpace sales in more developed economies, such as the United States and Japan. Now, the surge in global oil prices triggered by the difficulty in passing through the Strait of Hormuz appears to have brought an unexpected boon to the EV market, with increased interest and sales reported all over the world.  

At the start of 2026, EV sales in the United States had temporarily dried up, with sales in quarter four of 2025 at the lowest point since the end of 2022 as Biden-era government EV subsidies expired and were not renewed. Quietly, many domestic automakers had also pulled back on their investments in EV production. Now, first-quarter data for 2026, however, show that global “EV sales were 12 percent higher than the same time last year and 17 percent higher than in the previous quarter.”  

“The impact of the Iran conflict hasn’t fully shown up in March data yet, but it can act as a trigger,” said Chris Liu, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at advisory group Omdia. “In many markets that are structurally well suited for EVs, adoption has been slow simply because consumers lacked urgency,” he said. “A sharp rise in fuel prices changes that.” Consulting firm McKinsey forecasts further growth across major regions, with 45 percent of Chinese consumers, 23 percent of Europeans, and 12 percent of Americans saying their next vehicle will be battery-powered.

While the American EV market remains muddled by politics, in the United Kingdom, electric car sales reached an all-time high, with 86,120 vehicles sold in March. Meanwhile, French used-car retailer Aramisauto reportedthat its EV sales rose from 6.5 percent on February ​16 to 12.7 percent on March 9. In comparison, sales of fueled vehicles dropped from 34 percent to 28 percent, and sales of diesel models dropped from 14 percent to 10 percent. 

In Asia, South Korea reported that electric vehicle registrations more than doubled last month compared to the prior year. And Bloomberg reported that in Pakistan, electric rickshaws have been selling out.  

In New Zealand, Transport Minister Chris Bishop reported that “more than 1,000 EVs were registered in the ‌week that ended ⁠on March 22, close to double the week before, making it the country’s biggest week for electric vehicle registrations since the end of 2023.”  Australia, which has already seen rising EV sales in recent years, also reported an additional spike in EV sales.

The global pattern in EV sales is clear, but who will likely benefit most?

Who Benefits as Consumers Seek the Best Energy Option?

Poised to take advantage of this shift in renewable energy is China. In March, its export of passenger cars increased 82.4 percent year-on-year. For new energy passenger vehicles, which include battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, exports increased over 140 percent in March compared to 2025 and grew 31 percent since February. 

The largest Chinese automakers, including BYD and Geely Auto, are expanding their efforts to grow in overseas markets and have expanded production facilities outside China. Now, they are poised to take advantage of market shifts of any sort.

Consumers Drive the EV Push

Unique to this energy transition, consumer choice is at play in the selection of EVs.  The energy marketplace is largely out of the immediate hands of consumers, as shifts to the grid and energy infrastructure are time-consuming and require action by larger authorities and governments. EVs, though, offer an option for personal, immediate results.

Similar to Cold War efforts to stock the family bomb shelter, moving about requires only an electric charge, liberating consumers—at least in their own minds. Since 1998, car manufacturers have prepared EV models, while many nations have established the beginning of a network for charging. Therefore, in such a moment, consumers are finding it appealing to just step out of the latest energy instability and into the driver’s seat of a new EV.

Transitions are spurred by a variety of factors, and the War with Iran appears to be just the latest stimulus. Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy at Oxford University, recently wrote: “Electric cars are expected to be far cheaper to drive during the coming energy crises.” Consumers have noticed!

About the Author: Brian C. Black

Brian C. Black is a distinguished professor of History and Environmental Studies at Penn State Altoona and author, most recently, of Ike’s Road Trip: How Eisenhower’s 1919 Convoy Paved the Way for the Roads We Travel. (Godine, 2024). Energy Transition 2026 is an ongoing series to place details of our current energy shift into historical context.