This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Intel shares fell about 1.5% on Monday after a Friday 10% surge sparked by an analyst’s prediction that the chipmaker could supply Apple with low-end M processors as early as 2027.

TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has improved significantly, but he cautioned volumes would be small and likely have little impact on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s dominance.

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Investors pared gains as the market digested the timeline, which hinges on Intel releasing a process design kit in early 2026 and executing flawless manufacturing after that.

Analysts say even a limited Apple win could validate Intel’s foundry push and help attract other customers, yet they warn the firm must prove consistent execution to close the technology gap with TSMC and Samsung.

The episode underscores the fragile nature of Intel’s recovery: momentum has returned after months of losses, but the company still faces legal and competitive headwinds, including a recent lawsuit alleging leaked trade secrets, that could complicate its path to becoming a major contract manufacturer.

Based on the one year price targets offered by 37 analysts, the average target price for Intel Corp is $35.49 with a high estimate of $52.00 and a low estimate of $18.00. The average target implies a downside of -11.29% from the current price of $40.01.

Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Intel Corp in one year is $23.92, suggesting a downside of -40.21% from the current price of $40.01