Investing in Franco-Nevada (TSE:FNV) five years ago would have delivered you a 50% gain
March 31, 2025
If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you’d hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you’d generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 42% over five years, which is below the market return. However, more recent buyers should be happy with the increase of 35% over the last year.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years of share price growth, Franco-Nevada moved from a loss to profitability. That’s generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Franco-Nevada’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Franco-Nevada’s TSR for the last 5 years was 50%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It’s good to see that Franco-Nevada has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 37% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 8%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We’ve spotted 1 warning sign for Franco-Nevada you should be aware of.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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