Investing in Inchcape (LON:INCH) five years ago would have delivered you a 60% gain

April 18, 2025

When we invest, we’re generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Inchcape plc (LON:INCH) share price is up 40% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 26% (ignoring dividends).

Now it’s worth having a look at the company’s fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

We’ve discovered 2 warning signs about Inchcape. View them for free.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Inchcape’s earnings per share are down 2.4% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

So it’s hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend is higher than it was previously – always nice to see. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price. We’d posit that the revenue growth over the last five years, of 6.6% per year, would encourage people to invest.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:INCH Earnings and Revenue Growth April 18th 2025

It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Inchcape will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Inchcape’s TSR for the last 5 years was 60%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

While the broader market gained around 6.6% in the last year, Inchcape shareholders lost 1.7% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 10% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Inchcape you should be aware of.

Inchcape is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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