Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV) shareholders, since the share price is down 12% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 67%. Furthermore, it’s down 10% in about a quarter. That’s not much fun for holders.

It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.

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Given that Modiv Industrial didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last three years, Modiv Industrial saw its revenue grow by 6.7% per year, compound. That’s not a very high growth rate considering it doesn’t make profits. Indeed, the stock dropped 4% over the last three years. If revenue growth accelerates, we might see the share price bounce. But ultimately the key will be whether the company can become profitability.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Modiv Industrial in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Modiv Industrial, it has a TSR of 22% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!