Investing Myth: Timing the Market. Here’s Why Patience Beats Prediction. @themotleyfool #s
July 29, 2025
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By Jeremy Bowman
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Jul 29, 2025 at 5:09PM
Key Points
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The S&P 500 has returned an annual average of 9%, but short-term periods can be much more volatile.
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Warren Buffett has called timing the market a waste of time.
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Timing the market consistently is virtually impossible.
Market timing is much harder than it looks.
Many investors probably look at a stock chart and envision buying at the bottom and selling at the top.
For example, you might imagine investing in the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.30%) on March 9, 2009, when it bottomed out during the Great Recession, or when it hit its low after a plunge early in the coronavirus pandemic, on March 23, 2020. If you’re looking at an individual stock chart, the opportunity can become even more mouthwatering.
However, in reality, investing isn’t like this. You don’t know where a stock will go in the future, and no one knows when a stock is hitting a bottom or a top.
Trying to buy a stock at the bottom or sell at the top is known as “timing the market,” and it’s impossible to do consistently. Warren Buffett, the Berkshire Hathaway founder and CEO, has said that trying to time the market is a waste of effort and that the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
Image source: Getty Images.
The S&P 500 has an incredible track record of generating wealth, but you can only overcome the volatility inherent in the stock market by investing over the long term.
Historically, the S&P 500 generates an average annual return of 9%, but over a shorter period of time, stocks can do much worse. For example, the 2000s are often considered a lost decade in the stock market, as the S&P 500 was essentially flat from its peak in 2000 to 2013 due to the dot-com bust and the Great Financial Crisis.
Since then, the index has surged, ultimately rewarding investors who endured those twin crashes.
Overall, staying invested can help smooth out the volatility that occurs over short-term periods. It also avoids the need to decide when to get back into the market if you sell, which can be much more difficult than simply looking at a stock chart and buying at the bottom.
About the Author
Jeremy Bowman is a contributing Motley Fool Stock Analyst covering publicly traded companies in the consumer discretionary, consumer goods, and tech sectors, as well as macroeconomic trends.
Prior to The Motley Fool, Jeremy held a number of positions, including newspaper reporter, restaurant manager, and teacher of English as a foreign language.
He holds a B.A. in English and Creative Writing from Colorado College and an MBA from American University.
Fun fact: One of his Motley Fool headlines was briefly featured on Late Night with Stephen Colbert.
Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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