Each of the last three years brought excellent gains to markets and a variety of other investments. Since the beginning of 2023 the S&P 500 has had a total return of over 85%, as of February 6th. Gold and silver have more than doubled. Bitcoin has tripled since that time, even after its recent volatility.

It feels good when we are “in” on those types of investment gains; everyone like being a winner. But how do we know when the rising tide of investments that we’ve been riding higher is getting ready to crash? Should you be selling off your portfolio? Let’s look at some of the concerns investors have for 2026.

Politically, it feels like heightened geopolitical tensions are becoming the norm. Russia and Ukraine remain at war, and while the situation in Gaza has de-escalated, it continues to be unsettled. Other conflicts and political uncertainty, both abroad and at home, can be anxiety-producing.

Meanwhile, stock prices continue to be higher than historical norms, based on P/E ratios and a number of other readings. Concerns are increasing that there may be an AI bubble getting ready to burst. And the surge in gold and silver would seem to be caused by one of two things: either a bubble in their own right, or a signal of flight to “safe” investments caused by concerns in the markets.

Anyone looking at all of those factors would be justified in considering paring back or eliminating market exposure. It is human nature to let fear guide decisions. However, historically speaking, making fear-based decisions has not worked out in investors’ favor.

I’ve spoken many times about the fact that there is plentiful evidence that attempts to time the market will, on average, end up reducing investment returns. Look back just 6 years ago to COVID as an example. Yes, the market dropped 30% in just a few weeks, but if you stayed invested you were very likely to be ahead by the end of the year. The S&P 500 had a total return of over 18% that year in spite of the COVID drop, and today sits more than double where it was at the beginning of 2020. Even if you were able to time your market exit just before the 30% drop, unless you knew when to buy back in, you missed large gains.

There are other recent examples to consider. After most of the recent Presidential elections, there were concerns that the markets would tank because of the new President. Yet every President since 2008 has presided over substantial market gains. Again, people who tried to time an exit to prevent portfolio losses actually lost money in most cases.

All of this is not to say that you are wrong to feel squeamish about the current investing climate. There are plenty of concerns, and there is always the possibility of a substantial market drop. Yet time and again, the evidence shows us that timing the market is more likely a path to losing, not winning. For those who are invested for the long-run, a well-invested stock portfolio has been a consistent winner.

Rather than dismantling your investment portfolio, times like these are a great opportunity to review your strategy. Is your portfolio aligned with your risk tolerance? Are you invested in a way that maximizes your chances of reaching your goals? Now is as good a time as any to review and update your investment strategy.

How ever you handle the current event cycle, invest smartly and invest well!

Larry Sidney is a Zephyr Cove-based Investment Advisor Representative. Information is found at https://palisadeinvestments.com/ or by calling 775-299-4600 x702. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Clients may hold positions mentioned in this article. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor before purchasing any security.