When popular crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) start bleeding capital, it’s natural to want to head for the door yourself. Spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs have shed in the ballpark of $3 billion across 10 consecutive trading sessions, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) absorbing the brunt of the outflows. The salt in the wound was on May 26, when an unidentified actor unloaded more than $1.2 billion of IBIT shares at a 2.3% discount, accepting a loss of nearly $30 million for an instant exit. It’s usually not a good sign when big players make a hasty exit, taking a multi-million-dollar loss to make it quick.

Nonetheless, this is precisely the kind of stretch that hands long-term holders an opening. The coin’s fundamentals haven’t moved an inch. If you’re patient, this could be a great time to start buying. Here’s why.

Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an “Indispensable Monopoly” providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »

The outflows aren’t as bad as they look at first glance

The unresolved conflict in the Middle East, and its potential to further upend the global economy, is likely the single biggest culprit for the outflows. While crypto markets aren’t necessarily directly exposed to the price of oil or other globally critical commodities like fertilizers, whose prices are highly affected by a closed Strait of Hormuz, the unprecedented uncertainty is enough to drive many investors into risk-off mode, which means they’d be eager to sell volatile risk-on assets like crypto.

It’s also important to put the outflows into context. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold around $105 billion in assets under management, and cumulative net inflows since their January 2024 launch are at $55 billion. In other words, one Iran-war-driven week of rebalancing does not unwind two years of institutional onboarding through the spot Bitcoin ETF wrapper.

ETFs aren’t the only constraint on this coin’s supply

While spot Bitcoin ETFs were losing capital in May, public companies added 51,000 BTC to their treasuries, with Strategy alone acquiring 25,404 BTC. Furthermore, the soon-to-IPO SpaceX disclosed an 18,712 BTC position in one of its IPO-related filings. That total is more than triple what Bitcoin miners produced during the entire month.

Daily issuance is just 450 BTC, and the upcoming April 2028 halving will cut that supply trickle in half again. ETF flows can hinge on the skittishness of a single big holder, but corporate treasury accumulation and the coin’s programmed supply schedule operate on a much longer (and comparatively less uncertain) timescale.