On all Investors’ minds today: “Financial Debates over AI and mega-IPOs.” Three trillion-plus AI IPOs are queued up later this year. Markets are now actively debating whether the math works — at the deal level, at the growth and capex metrics level, and at the China geopolitics level. Today’s three items each pressure-test a different piece of that debate.

Three Key Takes today:

(1) Investors Debate the Three Mega-AI IPOs — Pros and Cons. The Information held an investor event where the SpaceX/xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic mega-IPOs got debated head-on by institutional investors — the kind of room MP spent a career running at Goldman in the 90s. Read the room: The Information — SpaceX, AI IPOs hold risks, AI buildout say investors at AI event. Standing IPO-prep backcat: AI-RTZ #974 — Elon’s SpaceX prepping for 2026, AI-RTZ #1021 — OpenAI IPO prospects assessed, AI-RTZ #1048 — Business and Personal in OpenAI/Anthropic.

MP Take: “These three IPOs will potentially create more market cap — over $3 trillion — than the entire Internet/Telecom ‘dotcom’ wave did in the 1990s. By at least 20% or more. That earlier wave was hundreds of companies; this one is three being seriously discussed today. But the markets globally are far bigger and far more developed than back then. The incumbents and startups are paying keen attention to both the technology and financial challenges. Not financial advice, but the risk-reward dynamics are relatively clear for institutions and investors willing to do the work.”

(2) OpenAI’s IPO Prep Uncertainties — The Metrics Test. Two contrasting reports today on whether OpenAI’s growth math holds up against the IPO story. The skeptical read: WSJ — OpenAI misses key revenue/user targets in high-stakes sprint toward IPO — focused on the massive data-center buildout vs revenue/user shortfalls (stuck at ~900M weekly users since February). Same-day response: Bloomberg — OpenAI hits back at growth fears, says firing on all cylinders. Standing thesis on OpenAI’s execution challenges + the side-quests problem: AI-RTZ #1037 — OpenAI Trims AI Applications Down.

MP Take: “Despite the headwinds and the debate, OpenAI still has core opportunities to execute on in these early days of the AI Tech Wave. Recent focus on a few things and fewer ‘side quests’ is a good thing.

The key challenge: establish a set of growth metrics OpenAI can execute on over the next two years — and meet AND beat them. CFO Sarah Friar (ex-Goldman, same alma mater) is right to flag internal pacing concerns despite the push to go public fast.

Relatively easier for Anthropic. Far more difficult for Elon’s SpaceX/xAI. The IPO story is now literally a metrics-execution story. The slide deck doesn’t matter. The next four quarters do.”

(3) China Shutting US Investors Out of China AI/Tech. Beijing just shut down Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of AI agent company Manus — one of the most interesting post-DeepSeek companies, with Benchmark backing and a Singapore HQ — right ahead of the Xi/Trump May meeting on trade, technology, and tariffs. The block: FT — China blocks Meta’s $2 billion purchase of AI group Manus. The unwind mechanics: WSJ — Meta is preparing to have to undo its Manus acquisition after China ban. Standing context: AI-RTZ #952 — Meta’s Bingo Card Surprise (the original Manus deal), AI-RTZ #1019 — US Investors Seek Ways to Invest in China AI.

MP Take: “Current China moves seem tactical in the broader negotiations around trade, technology, and tariffs coming up in May between Xi and Trump. Likely pre-positioning for negotiations and discussions.

Long-term balkanization is a deep negative for all sides — both in terms of technology innovation and capital-market efficiency on a global basis. China is the world’s second-largest (probably the largest, to come) AI market — especially as AI evolves into the real world: world models, hardware, cars, robots, drones, gadgets. Much of that supply chain runs through Asia, most through China.

Optimistic it gets resolved, but a non-trivial, small chance it’s a permanent part of the new AI/Tech investment landscape for the next few years. Watch the May meeting closely.”

Plus: Gadget AI — Valve confirmed the Steam Machine still ships in 2026 (delayed, higher price on memory shortages). The under-the-radar story: gaming is moving off Windows to Linux. Reporting: The Verge — Valve Steam Machine, Frame controller delay, RAM memory. Microsoft’s last consumer franchise (Xbox) just got Asha Sharma — ex-AI lead at Microsoft — running it. AI on games is a totally untapped market that runs better on open-source platforms.

MP Take: “Valve’s Steam Machine itself is not the core story — the core story is gaming as a foundational shift away from Windows-PC dependency to Linux/Unix open-source platforms. That trend matters because AI on games is a massive untapped category, and it’ll develop faster on open platforms than locked-down ones. A multi-year trend with a lot more to come.”

Bonus — today’s AI-RTZ companion #1070 covers OpenAI/Microsoft and OpenAI/Elon & More — the financial-market backstory under today’s three IPO debates: yesterday’s Microsoft re-cut deal plus today’s lawsuit drama all feed the same throughline.

Closing Qs —

• What AI gadget is the market over-indexing on going into 2026/27? AI Smart Glasses. Meta has 3M+ Ray-Bans, Apple/Google/Amazon all coming with their own. Lots of innovation, still early days. The technical limits beyond pictures, on-board voice AI, and modality basics are real. Interesting category eventually — just not as big and not as fast as the market wants. Standing thesis: AI-RTZ #872 — The Glass Half Empty on AI Devices.

• What’s the AI gadget MP is most looking forward to? Google Gemini on Apple Siri via iPhone — likely surfaced at WWDC this June. Prosaic ambition, but it’s the integration that actually changes the daily-use experience for the largest installed base of mainstream consumers. Apple’s 2.5B+ device users plus the App Store/Services franchise plus a credible AI brain via Gemini — that’s the unlock. Backcat: AI-RTZ #965 — Apple Goes with Google Gemini. Stay tuned.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)

Clips from today’s episode