An abundance of sunlight, economies craving reliable power supplies, and a technology becoming massively cheap: Solar energy is widely recognized as an excellent solution for Africa.

According to 2024 data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar ranks among the cheapest energy sources worldwide, costing just $0.044 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) after prices for solar photovoltaic (PV) modules dropped by 90% in only 13 years.

Africa has so far been a small solar power player: The entire continent accounts for little more than 18 gigawatts (GW) in installed capacity – which translates to just 1% of global solar PV. This is in part due to lack of investment capital and preexisting grid infrastructure.

But apparently, the tides are finally turning.

A huge influx of Chinese solar panels

An analysis of Chinese export data carried out by British renewable energy think tank Ember indicates a massive injection of solar equipment in Africa. Over just 12 months, China shipped solar panels with an overall capacity of 15 GW to the continent.

“Everybody seems to be very bullish about solar in Africa,” John van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), a pan-African lobby group, told DW. Based on historical export data, AFSIA estimates Africa’s total installed solar capacity at around 75 GW since 2000 — significantly more than the figure provided by IRENA. According to van Zuylen, many small-scale and off-grid applications rarely appear in official statistics.

“But even if you take that 75 GW number, 75 over 25 years compared to 15 GW in just 12 months, that gives you an idea of the momentum that is happening in Africa right now.”

A large share — about 3 GW — comes from a major project in Algeria. But van Zuylen says several countries in sub-Saharan Africa are also gaining traction, including Zambia, Rwanda, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria.

“Nigeria is growing very strongly. And, I believe that there is a chance that Nigeria is soon going to become the number one solar opportunity in Africa — going above South Africa — because Nigeria has been running on diesel for many years, because the diesel price was subsidized and artificially low,” van Zuylen said. Solar is now the cheapest option for many Nigerians.

Also, new countries are pushing on the solar market. Liberia, for example, is seeking to diversify its clean energy portfolio, which has relied mostly on hydropower so far. On the sidelines of the UN COP30 in Brazil, Emmanuel K. Urey Yarkpawolo, Executive Director of Liberia’s Environmental Protection Agency, said the country’s first solar park is nearing completion.

“We have about 20 megawatt that will be coming online maybe towards the end of this [year] , maybe early next year. It’s going very fast and there’s a lot coming up in the pipeline,” Yarkpawolo told DW.

Is there more to it than the US-China trade war?

Van Zuylen says there’s a combination of factors behind the uptick, while some commentators argue that the export boom from China is at least in part a consequence of the tariff stand-off between Beijing and Washington. At some point, the Trump administration even threatened to impose a 3,521% rate on south-east Asia solar panels.

“The cost of equipment went down when the trade war started. The Chinese were desperate to offload,” Fawen Nyakudya, Managing Director of Zimbabwe-based PFN Solar Systems, told DW. “I will say it’s in the positive for us. The Chinese don’t have any option other than to treat us well, because they know if they treat us bad again, the next thing is we are not going to buy from them.”

According to World Bank figures from 2023, 565 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. There is much need for imported technology, according to Kenyan economist James Shikwati.

“Whether it is coming from China, US or Europe, I think Africans will be saying, this is great. And so I would say indirectly that tariff war then creates possibilities for Africans to access cheap energy,” Shikwati told DW.

India is also among Africa’s solar equipment suppliers but importers prefer China because of lower prices.

Nyakudya believes that Chinese vendors are already adapting to a new market reality – and holding back produce in order to uphold profitability.

“There is a serious shortage, especially when you are looking at panels and lithium batteries. So many dealers and importers say they don’t have panels at the moment. Offloading was done just for a short space of time, but now there is a serious shortage,” Nyakudya said.

Storage and net metering is making solar more profitable

Lithium batteries have become affordable for private households and utility-level operators alike. Thanks to battery storage solutions, solar power can be stored and used during the evening peak hours.

Net metering, where households with rooftop panels feed unused surplus energy pack into the grid in an exchange for a refund on their electricity bills, is also paying off.

This can multiply profitability by five, AFSIA CEO van Zuylen said. “If you need to consume your solar electricity whenever it is being produced, then generally you can only cover around 20% of your total electricity consumption. But if you have a net metering system, then suddenly you can install panels for the equivalent of 100% of your consumption.”

Countries like Kenya, Namibia and Zimbabwe have already implemented the system that has long been in place in many European countries..

What about the red tape and hidden costs?

In some instances, shipping costs and import taxes are still significantly lowering profit margins.

“If I’m going to be charged 15%, obviously, I’m going to charge my customer as well,” said Nyakudya.

Countries such as Zambia have zero-rated import taxes for solar products to encourage the uptake of renewable energy. “For a shipment that you could import into Zimbabwe and pay VAT of up to $20,000, you only pay $26 in Zambia,” he told DW.

Import tariffs are often designed to protect domestic industries from cheaper imports. However, that is not the case for Zimbabwe.

“If we were manufacturing solar products ourselves, then we would say, it’s important to put taxes so that we promote the local companies. But we are not manufacturing, so why make it difficult for your own people?” Nyakudya said.

Added costs and bureaucracy might continue to thwart solar expansion to some extent. But van Zuylen believes that the economics of solar will continue to push for investment. He told DW about a recent project in Mauritius that combines solar panels and storage for just $0.07 cents per kWh.

“When you start reaching that kind of price points, you know, you make things happen. It becomes like a no-brainer. You need electricity, you need it at a decent price — yes, you go for it.”

Tainã Mansani in Belem contributed to this article.

Edited by: Benita van Eyssen