Glassnode data shows that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that may indicate a bearish signal, is imminent, but with a catch.

The 50-day moving average for bitcoin at $110,669 is now on the verge of slipping below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, potentially triggering the death cross. This crossover is widely viewed in technical analysis as a bearish signal because it reflects weakening short-term momentum relative to the longer trend.

However, this can also act as a possible positive signal.

Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October all time high around $126,000 and this correction has been ongoing for roughly 41 days. Despite the reputation of the death cross, this would be the fourth occurrence of the death cross since the cycle started back in 2023 and each previous instance has aligned with a major local bottoms.

In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000, in August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind it found support around $49,000, and then in April 2025, during uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC bottomed below $75,000.

In the current setup, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000 and in all four prior instances the market put in its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether the same pattern may be unfolding again.

This current drawdown is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin dropped below $75,000 during the tariff related turmoil.

The April correction was both deeper and longer than the current correction, with bitcoin falling about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and spending around 79 days trending lower before bottoming in the first week of April. With current selloff of 25% and 41 days, perhaps further downside still possible.

However, the broader environment now includes the end of the United States government shutdown on Nov. 12. The closest comparison is the 2019 shutdown, when bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on Jan. 25 2019.

It took until Feb. 9 2019 for bitcoin to recover, approximately two weeks.

This time around bitcoin has already dropped as much as 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same pattern will play out again.