Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has seen wild swings lately, testing the nerves of even seasoned investors. Just weeks ago, the cryptocurrency surged past $126,000, fueled by optimism around regulatory shifts and institutional adoption. But that high was short-lived. In a sharp reversal, Bitcoin plunged below $100,000 amid broader market pressures, including profit-taking and macroeconomic concerns.

Today, Bitcoin trades around $104,150, reflecting a partial recovery but still far from its peak. This volatility underscores the crypto market’s sensitivity to external factors, from interest rate expectations to geopolitical events. While some see these dips as buying opportunities, others worry about sustained downward momentum. 

Adding to the uncertainty, a previously big Bitcoin bull just cut their price target on the crypto. Does that mean they’re turning bearish?

Bitcoin’s Unwavering Champion

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, has been one of Bitcoin’s most vocal and influential advocates for years. Through her firm’s research reports, public appearances, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings, she has consistently painted Bitcoin as a revolutionary asset class — one that could disrupt traditional finance, serve as digital gold, and even become a global reserve currency. 

Wood’s bullishness is rooted in fundamentals: Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, its decentralization, and its growing integration into payment rails and balance sheets of corporations and governments.

ARK’s annual “Big Ideas” reports have long featured aggressive Bitcoin price models, factoring in network growth, halving cycles, and adoption curves. Her original base case wasn’t modest — $1.5 million by 2030 in the bull scenario — premised on Bitcoin capturing 5% of institutional portfolios and displacing a portion of gold’s $12 trillion market cap. That target, while ambitious, wasn’t the most outlandish in crypto circles. Analysts like Tim Draper and firms such as VanEck have floated $3 million to $10 million forecasts, citing hyper-adoption in emerging markets and sovereign wealth funds. Wood, however, grounded her view in data-driven scenarios, emphasizing Bitcoin’s scarcity and security over speculative hype.

Even during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell below $20,000, Wood doubled down, urging investors to view downturns as accumulation opportunities. She frequently cites El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and Strategy‘s (NASDAQ:MSTR) treasury strategy as proof of institutional momentum. 

For Wood, Bitcoin isn’t just an investment — it’s a technological and monetary breakthrough with multi-decade potential.

What Changed to Cause a Price Cut?

Last week, in a surprising update to ARK’s 2030 outlook, Wood lowered the bull-case target for Bitcoin from $1.5 million to $1.2 million — a 20% reduction. The move came during a client webinar and was later detailed in an updated research note. Wood explicitly pointed to the explosive growth of stablecoins as the primary reason for the adjustment.

Stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar — have become the workhorse of crypto transactions. Tether ‘s USDT (CRYPTO:USDT), Circle Internet Group‘s (NASDAQ:CRCL) USDC (CRYPTO:USDC) and newer entrants like PayPal’s (NASDAQ:PYPL) PYUSD (CRYPTO:PYUSD) now facilitates trillions in annual transfer volume, powering DeFi, cross-border payments, and trading. Their combined market cap has surged past $200 billion in 2025, up from $130 billion just 18 months prior.

Wood had previously assumed Bitcoin would dominate not just store-of-value narratives but also medium-of-exchange use cases. But stablecoins have filled that role far more efficiently, offering price stability, speed, and regulatory clarity that volatile assets like Bitcoin can’t match for everyday use.

“Bitcoin is evolving into a monetary base layer,” Wood explained, “while stablecoins handle the transactional overlay.” This specialization reduces Bitcoin’s total addressable market in payments — a key growth driver in ARK’s original model.

The revision also reflects caution around regulatory timelines. While the U.S. has seen progress with crypto-friendly appointees in key agencies, global coordination on digital assets remains fragmented. Wood may be tempering expectations to account for slower institutional ramp-up amid economic uncertainty.

Critically, the cut doesn’t signal bearishness — it’s a recalibration. ARK’s base case is $500,000, and the bear case is $300,000, both of which imply massive upside from current levels. The $1.2 million bull case still assumes 60x growth over five years, driven by ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and nation-state accumulation.

Key Takeaway

Cathie Wood hasn’t abandoned her Bitcoin thesis — she’s refining it. The $1.2 million target acknowledges real competition from stablecoins and near-term headwinds, offering a more grounded (yet still highly optimistic) view of Bitcoin’s path. 

The crypto ecosystem is maturing: Bitcoin as digital gold, stablecoins as digital cash. This division of labor doesn’t diminish Bitcoin’s scarcity premium; it may even strengthen it by reducing selling pressure from transactional use. Volatility will persist, but infrastructure — custody, regulation, liquidity — is solidifying. 

Bitcoin is no longer a fringe experiment. It’s a permanent fixture in global finance with significant upside ahead. Wood’s adjustment isn’t a white flag — it’s a strategic pivot from a bull who’s still very much in the game.