00:00 Julie

Are we getting close to the bottom here? What what signs are you looking for?

00:06 Speaker B

Hey Julie, great to see you. Look, I think we are likely getting close. Um, you know, I think value has opened up in the space in a variety of ways. We are seeing stabilization in some of the uh things that have been driving the market. But crypto really has been weighed on by a shift in macroeconomic expectations, shift in expectations for uh the US policy outlook. Think a few months ago, we had a booming US economy combined with Fed rate cuts. Now there are questions about the health of the labor market and about credit markets and uncertainty about where Fed rate cuts uh may be heading. It’s really been that macroeconomic shift that’s weighed on crypto. The crypto industry itself in very solid shape from a longer-term uh standpoint. I think we’ll be through some of this macroeconomic uncertainty relatively soon.

00:59 Julie

Okay, so I have a lot of questions about this. First of all, um New York Fed President John Williams spoke this morning and he indicated that he would be open to a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Stocks bounced off of that. Bitcoin bounced a little but didn’t recover. So if indeed Bitcoin has been tracking to these rate cut perceptions, why didn’t we see more of a positive reaction there?

01:26 Speaker B

Look, it’s of course bigger than any short-term uh move. I would say this, you have a jittery crypto market because of concerns around a concept of a four-year cycle. You know, crypto was an early stage industry and asset class for the last 15 years and it appeared anyway to follow a four-year cyclical pattern. We’ve had a three-year bull market and so investors that were conditions to that kind of pattern, naturally a little skittish around prices today, concerned about some type of broader top. I I think that this is a misguided uh perception. Cycles don’t die of old age, things that are priced in and well-known to the market typically don’t move uh prices. I think it’s very clear to me that we’ve seen a shift in in the macroeconomic expectations, that’s weighed on crypto. The outlook continues to be very bright. I think we’ll see that play out through the numbers and ultimately through valuations over the next few months.

00:00 Julie

Are we getting close to the bottom here? What what signs are you looking for?

00:06 Speaker B

Hey Julie, great to see you. Look, I think we are likely getting close. Um, you know, I think value has opened up in the space in a variety of ways. We are seeing stabilization in some of the uh things that have been driving the market. But crypto really has been weighed on by a shift in macroeconomic expectations, shift in expectations for uh the US policy outlook. Think a few months ago, we had a booming US economy combined with Fed rate cuts. Now there are questions about the health of the labor market and about credit markets and uncertainty about where Fed rate cuts uh may be heading. It’s really been that macroeconomic shift that’s weighed on crypto. The crypto industry itself in very solid shape from a longer-term uh standpoint. I think we’ll be through some of this macroeconomic uncertainty relatively soon.

00:59 Julie

Okay, so I have a lot of questions about this. First of all, um New York Fed President John Williams spoke this morning and he indicated that he would be open to a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Stocks bounced off of that. Bitcoin bounced a little but didn’t recover. So if indeed Bitcoin has been tracking to these rate cut perceptions, why didn’t we see more of a positive reaction there?

01:26 Speaker B

Look, it’s of course bigger than any short-term uh move. I would say this, you have a jittery crypto market because of concerns around a concept of a four-year cycle. You know, crypto was an early stage industry and asset class for the last 15 years and it appeared anyway to follow a four-year cyclical pattern. We’ve had a three-year bull market and so investors that were conditions to that kind of pattern, naturally a little skittish around prices today, concerned about some type of broader top. I I think that this is a misguided uh perception. Cycles don’t die of old age, things that are priced in and well-known to the market typically don’t move uh prices. I think it’s very clear to me that we’ve seen a shift in in the macroeconomic expectations, that’s weighed on crypto. The outlook continues to be very bright. I think we’ll see that play out through the numbers and ultimately through valuations over the next few months.