Is Meta a Real Bargain After Regulatory Headlines and a 15% Monthly Slide?
November 17, 2025
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Curious whether Meta Platforms is a genuine bargain or just riding the hype? You’re not alone. Let’s dig into what really drives the value behind those famous ticker letters.
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Meta’s stock price has seen some swings lately, down 3.5% over the past week and off 15.0% for the month. Despite this, it is still showing an impressive 10.3% gain in the last year and a remarkable 458.2% increase over three years.
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Much of the recent story centers around shifting investor sentiment following regulatory headlines and ongoing debates about the company’s role in the digital ad ecosystem. The stock’s month-long slide has prompted new questions about what the market is pricing in and whether the long-term vision outweighs the latest controversies.
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When it comes to value, Meta scores a strong 5 out of 6 in our valuation checks, putting it ahead of most big tech peers. We will break down what that score really means using traditional approaches, and then hint at an even smarter way to figure out Meta’s real worth, so keep reading.
Find out why Meta Platforms’s 10.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the fair value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This makes it a staple for long-term investors. For Meta Platforms, this approach involves evaluating how much cash the business generates now and how much it could generate in the years ahead.
Meta’s current Free Cash Flow stands at $58.8 billion. Analysts have forecasted that Meta’s annual Free Cash Flow could grow substantially, reaching as high as $97.0 billion by 2029. Projections beyond the initial five years are extrapolated, which introduces some uncertainty, but they still indicate considerable growth, with estimated FCF climbing to over $216.6 billion by 2035.
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, Simply Wall St estimates Meta’s intrinsic value to be $1,081.44 per share. This suggests that, at current market pricing, the stock trades at a 43.6 percent discount to its fair value using this DCF approach. In other words, it appears significantly undervalued.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Meta Platforms is undervalued by 43.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 905 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
For companies that are solidly profitable, like Meta Platforms, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a useful metric because it relates the market price of a stock to how much the company is actually earning. This helps investors gauge whether they are paying a reasonable amount for each dollar of current profits.
Investors often compare a company’s PE ratio to industry averages or peers to judge if the stock looks cheap or expensive. However, what counts as a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio varies depending on growth prospects and perceived risks. Faster-growing or more stable companies generally deserve a higher PE multiple because investors are willing to pay up for future earnings or lower risk.
Currently, Meta Platforms trades at a PE ratio of 26.2x. This is well above the Interactive Media and Services industry average of 16.9x, but below the average of its larger peers at 36.0x. At first glance, this suggests Meta is not the cheapest option in its sector.
Simply Wall St goes a step further by providing a “Fair Ratio” for Meta, which stands at 40.1x. The Fair Ratio is more comprehensive than peer or industry averages because it factors in Meta’s strong earnings growth expectations, market position, profit margins, and the risks it faces. This gives a smarter benchmark for today’s valuation context.
With Meta’s current PE ratio significantly below the Fair Ratio of 40.1x, the stock appears undervalued using this approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1416 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives, a dynamic approach that helps you connect the company’s story to its financial forecasts and ultimately to its fair value.
A Narrative is your own story or thesis about a company, where you can outline your expectations for Meta’s future, such as growth in advertising, advances in AI technology, or expansion into AR/VR. You can then link those beliefs directly to your estimates of its future revenue, earnings, and margins.
Unlike traditional metrics that only look at past performance, Narratives allow users on Simply Wall St’s Community page to easily translate their perspective into numbers and see an up-to-date estimate of fair value. This makes it straightforward to compare your outlook to others, helping you decide if Meta’s current price justifies your story or if it is time to buy, hold, or sell.
Narratives are dynamic and constantly update in response to the latest earnings or news, so your investment thesis always reflects real-time shifts in the market and business environment. For example, some investors see Meta’s value soaring past $1,000 per share with rapid AI and ad platform growth, while others remain cautious with fair value closer to $650, citing regulatory risks and heavy spending.
For Meta Platforms however, we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Meta Platforms Narratives:
🐂 Meta Platforms Bull Case
Fair Value Estimate: $841.42
Current Price vs Fair Value: 27.6% below fair value
Expected Revenue Growth Rate: 16.5%
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AI-driven ad targeting and personalization are fueling robust revenue growth and expanding new revenue streams, especially in digital commerce and messaging platforms.
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Meta’s platform ecosystem and ongoing investment in AI infrastructure support durable business advantages and higher monetization potential. However, profit margins are expected to moderate over time.
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Risks include rising costs from heavy AI and metaverse investment, evolving regulations, especially in Europe, and uncertainty around monetization timelines for new ventures like Reality Labs.
🐻 Meta Platforms Bear Case
Fair Value Estimate: $538.09
Current Price vs Fair Value: 13.3% above fair value
Expected Revenue Growth Rate: 10.5%
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Revenue growth is supported by new products, AI integration, and app diversification. However, the stock is already pricing in ambitious expansion and margin improvement assumptions.
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Massive ongoing capital expenditure for AI and Reality Labs may strain margins. Profitability in the metaverse segment remains uncertain after substantial historical losses.
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Key risks are persistent regulatory challenges around privacy and antitrust, concentration in digital ad revenue, and the need to execute successfully in competitive AR/VR and AI landscapes.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Meta Platforms? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include META.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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