Is Rising Earnings Optimism Changing the Investment Narrative for Triple Flag Precious Met

November 4, 2025

  • Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is preparing to release its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, with analysts having raised revenue and earnings estimates for both 2025 and 2026 over the past three months.

  • The company’s previous quarter saw it exceed analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings, fueling optimism and higher market attention ahead of this earnings announcement.

  • We’ll examine how the anticipation of stronger future earnings influences Triple Flag’s overall investment narrative and growth outlook.

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Triple Flag Precious Metals operates with a growth story driven by scaling royalty and streaming assets across mainly gold and silver, making it appealing to those who believe in rising precious metals demand and disciplined capital deployment. The recent surge in analyst estimates, following the previous quarter’s revenue and earnings beat, increases market anticipation for the Q3 2025 results, but does not materially change that the biggest short-term catalyst remains the ramp-up of new production streams, while the main risk continues to be the looming production declines at key assets if not offset by new deals.

Most relevant to the current optimism is the company’s reconfirmation of 2025 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) guidance on October 8, reinforcing investor confidence that announced catalysts such as first revenues from new streams in the second half of 2025 are still on track. This guidance helps anchor expectations ahead of the earnings release, as sustaining or exceeding GEOs targets may further bolster Triple Flag’s growth narrative and help offset concerns about future asset depletion.

However, in contrast to the upbeat revisions, investors should also weigh what happens if new streams fail to fully compensate for potential declines at legacy assets…

Read the full narrative on Triple Flag Precious Metals (it’s free!)

Triple Flag Precious Metals’ outlook anticipates $395.4 million in revenue and $311.4 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on a forecast revenue growth rate of 6.8% annually and represents an increase of $139.2 million in earnings from the current $172.2 million.

Uncover how Triple Flag Precious Metals’ forecasts yield a CA$50.68 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

TSX:TFPM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
TSX:TFPM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Three different Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Triple Flag Precious Metals range from CA$31 to CA$55.12 per share. Opinions differ widely on the value potential, especially as the company’s long-term revenue hinges on successful execution of new streaming investments.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Triple Flag Precious Metals – why the stock might be worth as much as 40% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TFPM.TO.

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