When an asset is lagging behind for a while, it’s often for a reason. But when a quality asset is underperforming for a long period, it could portend bigger problems — or a sharp reversal to the upside when the market recognizes that it made a mistake.

In that vein, there are a few signs that Ethereum (ETH 2.06%) is undervalued right now, and for bargain-hungry cryptocurrency investors, there’s a chance that a promising opportunity is lurking in plain sight. Let’s evaluate the nature of the opportunity and determine if it’s worth a moderate $5,000 investment. 

What’s causing the underperformance?

Ethereum is in the midst of a rough patch that’s gone on so long that it’s shaking out many of the coin’s longtime holders, and breaking the will of some of its stoutest evangelists. For reference, the coin’s price is down by almost 13% during the last three years, a stark contrast with the surging prices of other major cryptos like Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP, among others.

Its dismal fortunes stem from a web of issues including challenges from competitors, changing management in the Ethereum Foundation nonprofit, and barriers to adoption by new users.

In terms of the competition, Solana appears to be eating its lunch thanks to its lower fees, faster transaction times, and interest from investors seeking exposure to meme coins. Repeated upgrades to the Ethereum network haven’t delivered costs as low as Solana’s, nor have they delivered transaction times that are as quick. Furthermore, while the Ethereum Foundation’s senior leadership is being switched up as of early this year, with an emphasis on more technically oriented talent, it will take some time for any newly appointed leaders to craft technical solutions to these issues, if there are any.

Barriers to adoption have also remained fairly significant for Ethereum in comparison to Solana specifically. One of Ethereum’s emphases is on smart contracts, which are fairly technical in nature and not necessarily useful for the average developer, nor for the average investor. At the same time, the software products in the Ethereum ecosystem are, on average, a bit clunkier, slower, and overall harder to use than their Solana equivalents, including for very basic applications like for accessing and managing cryptocurrency wallets. So the user experience is not as good, which causes newcomers to gravitate to Solana’s blockchain rather than Ethereum’s.

Key threats may get worse rather than subside

For Ethereum to be a screaming buy with your $5,000, investors would need to be confident that there are drivers that would end its underperformance if the asset were to be held for the long term.

On that front, there are a couple of beacons of hope.

In particular, infrastructure projects catering to deploying artificial intelligence (AI) applications and interacting with AI agents will likely benefit more from being on Ethereum because its smart contract functionality has been in the hands of developers for a bit longer than the equivalent capabilities on Solana. If the AI segment proves to be a large one, and over the next few years it certainly might, it will represent a real opportunity for Ethereum to reclaim its status as an exciting place to develop applications and to invest. If so, its price will rise as a result.

Another beacon of hope is that eventually, the new staff at the Ethereum Foundation will be able to rekindle some enthusiasm for the project ecosystem on the chain. When paired with a few upgrades to the chain’s technology to make it cheaper, faster, and easier to use, it’s easy to see Ethereum’s price recovering within the next three years.

Still, neither of these possibilities for a brighter tomorrow are certain. It’s entirely possible that Ethereum has another few years of underperformance ahead of it, and practically guaranteed that in the near term it won’t perform much better than it has in the face of Solana’s rise.

Thus, while it is very likely to be a good purchase at this price level for very patient investors who are willing to hold on to their tokens for years and years, it is by no means a screaming buy at the moment, especially not for a substantial amount of money like $5,000. Check back in six months to see if things are changing for the better, and then reassess at that point.