New federal projections for Southern Nevada’s main water source were released Friday and paint an even more dismal picture amid a tight interstate negotiation over the future of the American West.

The Bureau of Reclamation estimated in its most probable scenario that Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, will fall to 1,036.5 feet above sea level in November 2027.

That’s about 5 feet lower than the level that the reservoir fell to in 2022, when experts sounded alarm bells about desperately needed conservation and solutions to the Colorado River’s overuse problem. It’s about 2 feet below the lowest level that forecasters predicted in November, as well.

The forecast for the lake — which fuels life in major cities in Southern Nevada, California and Arizona — comes as the seven states that share the Colorado River furiously work toward a Feb. 14 deadline to deliver an agreement to stabilize the river once the 2007 guidelines for it expire at the end of the year.

Experts agree, and the hydrology confirms: All water users along the Colorado River must learn to live with less.

Unpredictable predictions

Forecasters noted that the current is fluid and that projections can be uncertain.

“Because it is impossible to predict exactly how future climate, hydrology, and water demands will unfold, all projections are subject to some amount of uncertainty, and this uncertainty increases as projections look further out,” a Bureau of Reclamation website says, adding that two other water-saving agreements expire at the end of 2026, as well.

This month, the Bureau of Reclamation released a draft environmental impact statement that considers four possibilities for a consensus, though officials said at the time of release that a final agreement could lift elements from each of them.

Nevada’s negotiator in the talks, John Entsminger, confirmed at a Southern Nevada Water Authority board meeting on Thursday that the seven states have been meeting this week in Salt Lake City. Entsminger left Utah to lead the board meeting but said two Nevada officials remained at the table.

The water authority has declined to answer questions about the draft environmental impact statement or the negotiations as of late, though spokesman Bronson Mack said Nevada will submit official comments to the Bureau of Reclamation on the newest document.

Contact Alan Halaly at ahalaly@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlanHalaly on X.