There is a specter haunting the fossil-fuel powers. As a recent article in The National Interest by Columbia University energy experts Tatiana Mitrova and Anne-Sophie Corbeau put it,

What is emerging are two competing models of energy and influence—one anchored in the enduring logic of hydrocarbons, the other in the accelerating promise of electrification. At stake is not just the future of energy systems, but the contours of geopolitical power in the decades ahead.

The reality behind the specter is the phenomenal rise of China as the superpower of “Greentech” (sometimes also called “Cleantech”)—technology that reduces or repairs harm to the environment. As BP’s chief economist recently warned, “China is leading the global energy race because of its dominance in building up supply chains for renewable energy and electric vehicles.” Or as a Bloomberg headline put it, “US Will Lose if EU, China Become Clean Energy Buddies.”

Chinese investment and research have so reduced the cost of producing green energy, vehicles, and other technology needed for a Greentech transition that, if they were widely adopted, they would produce disaster for the fossil-fuel-producing countries, rendering much of their economies as “stranded assets”—assets like coal, oil, and gas that lose their value because they can’t compete with solar, wind, and geothermal energy. Conversely, the widespread adoption of Chinese “Greentech” would move the world far closer to climate safety and free it from the overweening power of fossil-fuel companies and countries.

China’s rise as the Greentech superpower is not only a historical fact; it also provides a strategic opportunity for those who want to save the earth’s climate by eliminating fossil fuels; escape domination by the fossil-fuel powers; and make affordable climate-safe energy available to all who need it at a reasonable price.

If China, Europe, and other non-fossil fuel countries cooperate to lower the cost of the green transition, they could cut greenhouse gas emissions but also drive down the value of fossil fuels, thereby leaving the economies of fossil-fuel-producing countries with stranded assets not only in their fossil-fuel industries, but in the large parts of their economies that are fossil-fuel-based. The result will be lower energy costs for consumers around the world except in the remaining fossil-fuel-dependent countries like the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—at least until they are willing to join the Greentech transition.

The world should aim to adopt the least expensive available green energy systems, which today means primarily Chinese technology and industrial ecosystems, as rapidly as possible. We should let the fossil-fuel powers suffocate in their own uncompetitive oil, gas, and coal until they are willing to join the rest of the world in going fossil-free.

The Chinese Greentech Revolution

According to a report from the Australian think tank Climate Energy Finance, China leads the world in “R&D, investment, innovation, manufacturing, deployment and exports of cleantech”—including solar, wind, batteries and new energy vehicles (NEVs)—by “an astonishing margin.” Its cleantech investments are more than double those of the United States or the EU.

The cost of electricity to Chinese consumers is barely half that in the United States. This is not because sunlight or fossil fuels are easier to obtain there. It is largely because Chinese energy technology is far superior, including high-voltage powerlines, fossil-free renewable energy, and energy-using products like steel and cars. To take one example: Chinese electric vehicle imports to Europe cost 32 percent less than European EVs in 2023. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Clean Energy Equipment Price Index, Chinese solar panel and wind turbine prices are down 60 percent and 50 percent respectively since 2022.

Although China initially focused on building up its Greentech capacity to reduce its own dependence on fossil fuels, according to Mitrova and Corbeau, China`s long-term trajectory suggests a pivot: “from hydrocarbon-dependent power to a commanding force in an electrified global order.”

Crucial to this trajectory is foreign investment. The Climate Energy Finance report details China’s new program of “huge, historically unprecedented outbound capital flows encompassing the globe” as “China’s world-leading corporates operating across every key decarbonization sector increasingly ‘go global.’”

Based on our tabulation of investments currently proposed and confirmed, we estimate that Chinese firms have committed more than US$100bn in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions since 2023. . .The technology and geographic diversity of this investment program is striking, spanning Europe, greater Asia, Africa and South America.

China’s industrial policy and domestic investment have led to Greentech overcapacity leading to rapid price deflation. This has led to widespread concern about a flood of Chinese Greentech products being “dumped” at low prices in other countries. In May 2024, long before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Biden administration announced tariffs specifically targeting green products, including lithium-ion batteries, critical minerals, and solar cells. It quadrupled duties on electric vehicles to 100 percent. It also released a “Foreign Entity of Concern” ruling that vehicle manufacturers would not get IRA tax credits if any company in their battery supply chain has 25 percent or more of its equity, voting rights, or board seats owned by a Chinese government-linked company.

Most countries, however, view Chinese Greentech investments as a very different matter from the import of products. Foreign investment is generally viewed as a positive contribution to national economies, providing employment and building up the national industrial base. In the EU, for example, Stellantis has an EV joint venture with China’s Leapmotor and Spain’s EBRO-EV has one with Chery to build EVs in Barcelona.

Such joint ventures often include provisions to address the economic and security concerns of the host countries. According to a Reuters story last summer, Italy was negotiating a deal with China’s state-owned Dongfeng that would ensure that at least 45 percent of the components in cars produced in Italy are sourced from within the country. Italy was also seeking commitments from Dongfeng to manage customer data locally and source critical components like infotainment units from European suppliers. Given the common interests of China and potential recipient countries in expanding Chinese Greentech investment, there appears to be a good deal of room for negotiating joint ventures that protect the interests of both sides.

Why Fossil Fuel Powers’ Energy Plan Will Fail

In June 2024, John Podesta, senior adviser to Joe Biden on international climate policy, told an interviewer, “The United States is now the number one producer of oil and gas in the world, the number one exporter of natural gas, and that’s a good thing.” He also defended the 100 percent tariff the Biden administration imposed on electric vehicles and other Greentech products from China. After accusing China of deliberately overproducing green goods, Podesta said, “We’re witnessing a renaissance of manufacturing in the United States in the green technology space, and will resist unfair trade practices that are going to undermine that investment.” In short, Biden administration policy was to expand fossil fuel production and exports while excluding the increasingly cheaper, superior, and more competitive Chinese Greentech.

Donald Trump is one-upping this program of climate destruction and economic nationalism. He is demolishing the modest U.S. Greentech initiatives, for example by defunding the climate-protecting programs in the Inflation Reduction Act and attempting to block coastal wind projects. At the same time, he is expanding coal, oil, and gas extraction and burning them as rapidly as he can as a means to both economic and geopolitical dominance.

Trump’s fossil fuel policy oscillates between global U.S. energy dominance and a fossil fuel imperial alliance led by the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. According to Mitrova and Corbeau, these three countries, with about a third of global oil output, now share “a commitment to energy dominance, particularly through fossil fuels,” with none supporting “a transition away from hydrocarbons.”

Why is Donald Trump, despite his vow to make the United States the energy superpower, cozying up to what would seem like his competitors, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the Persian Gulf emirates? And why is he doing everything possible, not just to deny the reality of climate change, but to decrease renewable energy, even though it would increase U.S. energy production and could complement rather than impede the development of fossil fuels? The obvious reason is that inexpensive Greentech—most of it Chinese—is an existential threat to either U.S. fossil-fuel dominance or to a cartel of major fossil-fuel states.

Here is the Achilles heel of all the schemes for global domination by fossil-fuel powers. Chinese Greentech is now substantially cheaper and better than fossil-fuel production. If the rest of the world decides to use the Chinese-developed Greentech to undercut the role of fossil fuels, all the investments of the fossil-fuel powers in oil, gas, and coal will be rendered stranded assets.

Stranded assets are assets whose value is reduced before their expected useful lifetime. If fossil fuels and fossil-fuel infrastructure lose their value because they can’t compete with Greentech, the companies that own them will also lose much of their value. And this is the case not only for fossil-fuel companies, but for the entire economic ecosystem based on fossil fuel. As BP’s chief U.S. economist warned,

The U.S. should be worried about trying to sell a gasoline-fueled Chevrolet Suburban that cost six figures. The question is where will American car companies be able to sell a gasoline truck? How is that going to compete in the international marketplace with a $20,000 EV that can charge in five minutes. You need to ask yourselves that question.

It is not only companies but also countries that can become stranded assets. By doubling down on fossil fuels, the United States not only risks creating stranded fossil-fuel-company or auto-company assets; it also locks itself into a high-cost energy infrastructure that will be a large and long-lasting liability for its entire economy.

A Time-Critical Opportunity

Investment in Chinese Greentech is expanding in most parts of the world—with the notable exception of the United States, Russia, and other fossil-fuel producers. The price of fossil fuels is already falling, largely due to their inability to compete with the falling cost of Greentech. Geopolitical conflict like the war against Iran may drive up the price of fossil fuels, but that will only increase the incentive to invest in fossil-free alternatives.

To protect the climate, liberate countries from fossil-fuel dependence, and reduce the hegemony of fossil-fuel powers, the implementation of Greentech and the collapse of fossil-fuel industries need to proceed much faster. According to the IEA, “The annual investment required in renewable power still needs to double to achieve a tripling of installed renewable capacity by 2030.” This needs to be accompanied by rising spending on “grids, storage and other forms of flexibility” to ensure “secure and cost-effective utilization of this capacity.” Spending on efficiency and electrification needs to “almost triple” within the next five years to deliver a 4 percent annual energy intensity improvement by the end of the decade.

The Climate Energy Finance report lays out a powerful vision of how this can happen. It notes that there is an “under-deployment” of Chinese low-cost cleantech production capacity. But there is a “time-critical opportunity” to change that through a “faster rollout of decarbonization technologies across the globe.” China’s research and development and manufacturing scaling-up, which have slashed the cost of green technologies, are “the key enabler of accelerated global decarbonization.” And that is “an existential necessity” as “the climate challenge escalates” and “for nations to secure their energy independence.”

Push the River

The urgent, large-scale adoption of Chinese Greentech can be fought for in the arenas of national policy, global cooperation of non-fossil-fuel-producing countries, and local and sub-national governments and communities.

In national arenas, those seeking climate protection, national independence, and affordable energy can unite around a program of rapid adoption of Chinese Greentech through governmental economic guidance, joint ventures, technology transfers, and sub-national and community initiatives. These can all incorporate negotiated provisions for economic development and national independence. As the Climate Energy Finance report puts it, there is

enormous potential for bi- and multilateral partnerships and collaborations on innovating and building new and emerging future-facing energy transition industries, as nations leverage Chinese capital and expertise in localized contexts to value-add domestically and derive mutual benefit. Recent announcements in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Hungary and Brazil all illustrate a potential game-changing shift in China’s strategic direction to better ensure more sustainable win-win collaborations.

How do people in fossil-fuel-producing countries fit into this picture? Even in these countries, local communities and sub-national jurisdictions may be able to circumvent the sometimes-porous national import restrictions to access the cheapest and best Greentech, wherever it comes from. They can launch campaigns to demand that national governments stop blocking their access to low-cost Greentech—campaigns that can win wide support on economic as well as climate grounds. They can implant low-cost, high-quality Greentech in their venues. They can be part of the “Green New Deal from Below” movement that is installing Greentech with or without the support of national governments.

Climate advocates in fossil-fuel-producing countries can loudly proclaim the devastating effects of fossil-fuel dependence. They can truthfully say that their countries’ romance with fossil fuels is catastrophic not only for the climate but also for the future of their national economies. Every dollar spent on fossil-fuel development is a dollar more that can become a stranded asset. By promoting dependence on fossil fuels, their governments have slowed or even reversed the transition to climate safety—and they have doomed their national economies to become stranded assets. Climate advocates can make the demand for Greentech a crucial part of the resistance to Trump, Putin, and the Middle Eastern oil autocrats.

The need for global cooperation among non-fossil-fuel powers to promote rapid proliferation of low-cost, high-quality Greentech is increasingly recognized. According to a recent article in the Guardian,

Many experts believe the only prospect of staving off climate breakdown is for China, the EU, the UK and other major economies to form a pro-climate bloc alongside vulnerable developing countries, to counter the weight of US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and petrostates pushing for the continued expansion of fossil fuels.

Tacit but large-scale cooperation, or even a “grand bargain,” to expand global Greentech by Europe, China, and the developing and emerging countries could turn the fossil-fuel-powers—notably the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—into stranded assets. It could crash the economies of the fossil-fuel powers, provide massive development for countries exiting the fossil-fuel economy—and radically reduce the destruction of the global climate.