00:00 Speaker A

here with the trading day takeaways. We got Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blicry. Jared.

00:01 Speaker B

Thank you, Josh. You know, we talk about volatility dropping into the holidays. That is here because we got some holiday chop right on queue and that’s actually a good thing. You don’t want to have a bare market erupt in December. That’s never fun. So here’s the S&P 500 intraday price action. You can see a whole lot of chop right there. Dow very similar, although it closed on the opposite side of that dotted yellow line meaning it’s negative. But check this out. Russell 2000 up three quarters of 1%. That is also good for a record high. This is the year-to-date chart, and you can see how it’s come back and just exceeded the October 27th prior record closing high that we have there. And it’s not just the Russell 2000. I found a microcap index in the Yahoo Finance Universe, CRSP US Microcap Index. CRSP, I had to look that up. It’s Center for research of security prices and they were just bought by Morningstar. Anyway, that just notched a record high too. So, if you’re following along here, we we had some speculative action into basically unprofitable small cap stocks here because the S&P 600 was down. That’s also a small cap index. Here we go. That’s the intraday right here. Um so you put it all together and not a terribly interesting day in the majors, but there’s always things going on underneath the hood here. Let me go, we’ll get to Bitcoin in a minute, but just showing you a kind of even split between the green sectors and the red sectors. And uh that’s what we see in the holidays is kind of a little bit of rotation there.

01:21 Speaker A

What about stocks, what about the bond market?

01:23 Speaker B

Yeah, let’s check that out too because we did get some action in the bond market. The US yield curve is steepening and when we say the yield curve, you know, you think at the very shortest end, that’s what the federal uh that’s what the Federal Reserve is doing. Then you have like the the one-month bills, the three-month bills, all the way up to one- year, three- year, five- year, seven, 10, all the way up to 30 years. So that’s the curve. and what’s been happening is the short end of the curve has been dropping over the last week and the long end of the curve has been going up and so that creates more distance between the short and the long end and that’s why we call it a steepening. So here’s the 13 week T bill. It was down two basis points today. I’m going to show you the 10-day trend because it was just 3.75% uh last week and it’s dropped 14 basis points since then. and that’s a pretty sizable drop. and what that is is traders in the bond market uh pricing in those Fed rate cuts. at least one cut and probably maximum one cut next week. So that’s kind of getting in in stone right now. If that doesn’t happen, you’re going to see a lot of problems. So I don’t think Jerome Paul is going to necessarily deviate from that, but I do think he might say something that uh kind of indicates what’s going to happen next year and that’s going to drive the market. Meanwhile, on the long end of the curve, we can see it’s been red, it’s been green here, but net over the last 10 days, it is up uh and it’s up five basis points today. So the lower end, the shorter end of the curve going lower and the longer end of the curve going up. that’s a steepener and uh that’s just something we’ll track here in the next week and the Fed meeting.

02:58 Speaker A

crypto. You know you don’t have to ask.

03:02 Speaker B

We, yeah, the obligatory crypto checks. So let’s do that. Um let me get my uh header up here first. There we go. Bitcoin holding 90,000. I guess that’s the big headline. Um I did have we’ll check out the technicals in a second. I just want to set up I got a clip here of the latest stocks in translation episode with Zack Guman of Trustless Media. If you recognize his name, he used to be a Yahoo Finance anchor right here. And he was talking about is this and he was answering my question, is this the time to buy the dip in Bitcoin? Let’s take a listen.

03:32 Speaker C

I think vibes-wise, obviously, there are always tremors. I think this year has been a very long year for crypto. We started the year with the Trump meme coin and all the excitement around, oh wow, we got a president who understands this stuff. To, hey wait, does he really understand this stuff? To where we are now. Uh and I think, you know, we’re seeing some of the the fears trickle in around strategy and what Michael Sailor’s been up to and building Bitcoin Treasury companies and the copycats and the like. But generally, I think I would be buying this dip, Jared, if I can give you a real succinct answer.

04:00 Speaker B

Yeah, so all right, so he’s bullish, he would be buying the dip. That’s nice to know. Here’s a Bitcoin chart over the last uh day. Let’s put the year- to- date back on. I I put this on quite a bit just to point out that we’re coming tantalizingly close to the 75,000 low from earlier in the year, which is also the high from the prior year. There you go right in there. So you draw this line right in here. Um I think there’s going to be a wash out, but I could understand if we just rally from here and that’s the end of the whole matter. I too think that the Michael Sailor strategy bit is a little bit overblown right now, but I do see that the sellers are still in control and my line in the sand is way above the current price, which is 110,000. So until then, I’m not entirely convinced.

04:34 Speaker A

Fine, anything else on the Jared Blockerry radar?

04:36 Speaker B

Yeah, I think we get PC inflation kind of a little dated look. I don’t know that it’s going to be that market moving. Fed meeting next week going to be huge and then after that, I think we get uh the the next jobs report in the middle of December, which is a little unusual but given the shutdown, that’s the uh data we have to work with. After that, hopefully we’ll be watching Paint dry.

04:57 Speaker A

There you go. Thank you Jared. Appreciate it. Stick around.