00:00 Josh

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq snapping snap winning their streaks as Oracle leads tech stocks lower. Yahoo Finance is Jared Blickry, joining us now with a train day takeaways. Jared.

00:09 Jared Blickri

Thank you, Josh. Well, no records of note to celebrate, at least in the major indices, but I have noticed that volatility is creeping higher. So I thought we’d take a look at the Vix. And um, just as a reminder, this is the prime time part of the year in October and November when we see the Vix tend to peek, and there is a seasonality to this. So, here’s a CBO volatility index and just as a refresher, when the Vix goes higher, this actually reflects institutional hedging activity. They are, this is based on S&P 500 options going 30 days out. Some people call it a fear index. Um, some people take issue with that, but nevertheless, when it goes up, that’s usually means stocks are going down. And so this goes back three months. What I want you to and this is very noisy, but I want you to notice that it is trending down over this first half and now it is just ever so gradually turning up. And so this is almost like a rounded bottom right here. And so this is almost setting up for a spike higher. We don’t know what the catalyst is going to be, but structurally, it looks like volatility wants to take up. And so that’s just kind of a yellow warning flag for the markets. Are we selling everything right now? No, just a yellow warning.

01:21 Josh

And what do the pros have to say about volatile prices?

01:25 Jared Blickri

Well, I would go back to Mr. Buffett. He has something that he calls Mr. Market. And he actually got this from Benjamin Graham from his days at Columbia, a long, long time ago. But I had the opportunity to talk to uh someone on the Stocks and in translation podcast. This is Mika Galina and she had this to recount about Mr. Buffett’s Mr. Market.

01:54 Mikella Galina

The market is essentially this moody person who comes to set prices every single day just like you and I have moods. And right now Mr. Market is euphoric about AI and tech. But that doesn’t mean that at some point in time he’s going to be fearful or scared or nervous about what that industry might be facing from a challenge perspective. And so that Mr. Market theme essentially gives you the knowledge to say, hey, at any point in time you might be higher or lower than the norm, but likely the market’s going to revert to the norm in the meantime.

02:30 Jared Blickri

So it’s kind of a story of mean reversion here. That was the message of her little parable, and we talked about a lot of different things, diversification, a lot of stuff for for beginners and advanced pros as well. So you can check that out. It is live now on the Yahoo Finance site, the Stocks and Translation podcast.

02:51 Josh

Should we do a quick check on crypto?

02:52 Jared Blickri

Let’s do that because I was talking yesterday about all these false breaks to the upside and to the downside that we see in Bitcoin, and after a record high on Monday, I was warning that, well, we could go down. And what I wanted to see hold was 120,000 and guess what? That’s exactly what held right here. So, no rug pull just yet. Here’s a 10-day chart, still looking pretty green here. Let me just give the uh six months and that will be pretty good because we have this trading range that had set up early on. We spiked above it and so this was kind of a rug pull. Took out this range right here too. But now we have this more established trading range. We broke above. what we want to see is 120 hold and then kind of stairstep higher. So, so far so good. but if we close below 100, well Bitcoin doesn’t really close, but if we move and stay above below 120,000, that would be an orange to red warning flag that once again we might be testing the bottom end of this range somewhere below 110,000.