What does this mean for a market where no one seems to like Zuck

At almost every ad industry conference, someone brings up the Zuckerberg Doctrine.

Based on the quote from last year’s interview on Stratechery, where Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg offered to handle everything for advertisers (from creative to targeting), no one misses a chance to scoff at that idea.

No way are brands going to just hand everything over to Zuck. Not a chance are they going to give up creative control, customer relationships, brand ethos, and cede all that stuff to friggin Facebook, right?

Except based on the recent report from eMarketer – are we sure about that?

While these top-line numbers largely don’t matter (it’s not like Google is falling or something), it can be viewed as a landmark moment.

Here’s what I find interesting about this race:

• Meta has virtually no presence on TV screens

• Meta has essentially no investment in original content

• It is not exactly beloved by creators. It has elected not to pay them, until very recently.

• Meta never plays in pricey battles for sports rights

• It completely avoids and ignores the metrics wars, or public fights with Nielsen

• Reels is only a few years old

• The Meta NewFront/Upfront barely seems to matter

• Apple’s rule changes were supposed to seriously dent Meta’s business

• Meta really isn’t a third party ad tech player, even though you could argue it is the world’s most successful ad tech company

• The blue Facebook app is said to be ‘dead’ or ‘dying’ and only used by boomers looking at AI memes

• WhatsApp still barely makes any money

• The company has a series of big failures, ranging from the Metaverse to any attempt at shopping on Facebook or Instagram. As former CNBC reporter Steve Kovach put it recently: “Does anyone pivot harder or faster than Mark Zuckerberg? From private messaging to the metaverse and now to “superintelligence.”
  ”Meta is an ad tech company.”

So what does this tell us about the media industry?

• The algorithm is unstoppable. Especially when you have massive scale – of users and advertisers

• In fact while Meta really doesn’t have a horse in the consumer-facing AI race, it may have built the best advertising AI system ever.

• Unlike say, CTV, people actually like the ads on Meta properties, and don’t think there are too many. “It is hard to overstate how powerful Meta’s ad targeting system is,” said eMarketer analyst Max Willens. “Meta’s managed to significantly increase the supply of ads available to advertisers in recent years, and while some of that is because of ads launching on Reels and Threads, a lot of it is because Meta’s gotten very good at showing its users ads they don’t mind seeing.”

  (How can TV figure out how to even come close to that kind of feeling??)

• OpenAI is eyeing Google’s playbook. What about Meta’s? Do you want the best intent, or time spent?

• Does this mean that live sports and creators and TV don’t matter? Of course not. Meta is actually planning to bring Reels to TV in some fashion. But in terms of what we define as the centerpiece of advertising and culture, Meta’s numbers at least have to challenge our assumptions (like maybe the mobile device is strangely underrated? And creative doesn’t have to be precious?)

• Added Willens: “If you look at the grosses, Google [still] comes out on top. You could argue that YouTube, one of chief reasons Google remains on top on a gross basis, may create a drag over time because of how many people pay for YouTube Premium. But we’re not there yet.”

One of the most interesting questions – slash existential crises – facing the ad world, is whether big brands will be able to resist Zuckerberg’s offer for long.

Headed to Possible? I’m co-hosting a fun dinner with the folks at StackAdapt on the future of programmatic in an increasingly AI-driven world. Reach out if you’re interested in attending.