Meta’s core online advertising business could take a $7 billion hit this year due to President Donald Trump’s tough China tariffs impacting retailers in the country.

That’s according to a MoffettNathanson research note published Tuesday that analyzes the potential impact of China-linked retailers like Temu and Shien slashing their Facebook and Instagram advertising budgets amid the U.S. and China trade dispute.

The MoffettNathanson analysts pointed to Meta’s latest annual report in which the company revealed that its China revenue was $18.35 billion in 2024, equating to a little over 11% of total its total sales. Like other analysts, MoffettNathanson believe Temu and Shien comprise the bulk of Meta’s China business, and if those online retailers cut back on their ad campaigns this year, the social networking giant’s 2025 ad sales could be impacted by $7 billion.

Meta did not immediately respond for a request for comment.

There are already signs of a pullback, the analysts wrote, citing a CNBC report about Temu reducing its U.S. advertising spending and seeing a big drop in its Apple App Store rankings following Trump’s China tariffs.

“China’s importance to Meta’s business cannot be overstated,” the analysts wrote in the note. “While Meta does not provide a country-level breakdown of revenue within Europe, we logically can presume that China is Meta’s second-largest revenue source after the United States — a remarkable position for a country where Meta has no users or active platforms.”

Meta could be in even more trouble if the broader markets heads into a recession this year, as some analysts and corporate financial chiefs have predicted. A “truly prolonged economic downturn” combined with the U.S. and China trade dispute “could wipe $23 billion in 2025 advertising revenues off Meta’s books and crush our 2025 earnings by -25%,” the analysts said.

“As noted earlier, we believe Meta is particularly exposed to a pullback in ad spend from Chinese advertisers,” the analysts said. “In a scenario where a recession is triggered or exacerbated by escalating trade tensions, Meta would face a dual headwind: cyclical advertising weakness and a targeted decline in Chinese ad spend.”

The MoffettNathanson analysts still maintain a Buy rating on Meta, said they have but decreased their target price by $185 to $525.

Meta reports its first-quarter earnings next Wednesday.

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