Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): A Bull Case Theory
March 21, 2025
We came across a bullish thesis on Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on Substack by Pacific Northwest Edge. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on META. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)’s share was trading at $584.06 as of March 19th. META’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.48 and 22.99 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A person wearing augmented reality glasses experiencing a virtual reality world.
Meta has evolved beyond its social media roots, now comprising two business segments: Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs. While FoA (including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads) generates nearly all revenue, Reality Labs represents Meta’s ambitious vision for the future. Despite operating at a $17 billion annual loss, Reality Labs is pursuing groundbreaking augmented reality (AR) technology that could revolutionize how we interact with digital content.
Meta Ray-Bans, developed in partnership with the fashion brand, represent a significant pivot from clunky VR headsets to stylish, functional AR glasses. Already capable of taking photos, videos, real-time language translation, and AI voice assistance, these glasses are just the beginning. Future developments include transparent AR displays that overlay digital objects onto the real world, eye and hand tracking for controller-free interaction, and AI-powered assistance integrated directly into your field of vision.
Unlike previous failed attempts like Google Glass, Meta Ray-Bans succeed through their fashionable design and subtlety, avoiding the privacy concerns that plagued Google’s device. With no serious competition in sight, Meta’s AR technology could eliminate the need to look at smartphones, creating displays that appear larger than a 50-inch television while keeping users aware of their surroundings.
Beyond AR, Meta has developed its own LLM AI, with Llama 4 releasing soon. Zuckerberg envisions specialized AIs for different tasks, positioning Meta competitively in the AI space. Additionally, Meta is developing MTIA chips – AI accelerators designed specifically for ranking and recommendation workloads, with plans to expand to AI training. This vertical integration helps Meta control costs and reduce dependence on suppliers like NVIDIA, while also extending server lifespans to five and a half years.
Meta’s core business remains exceptionally strong. The Family of Apps reaches an estimated 30-50% of Earth’s population monthly, creating an unmatched network effect. Facebook Marketplace has over 1 billion active shoppers across 70 countries, compared to Amazon’s 320 million. WhatsApp has about 2 billion users globally, while Instagram has approximately 2.4 billion. Messenger has around 194 million users in the United States and over 1 billion globally. Facebook itself continues to grow slowly in both daily and monthly active users, maintaining relevance as a platform for more mature social interactions.
Financially, Meta generates enormous free cash flow, with $63.2 billion in revenue coming from the United States and Canada (primarily the United States), $45 billion from the Asia-Pacific region, $38 billion from Europe, and $17.92 billion from the rest of the world. The company has minimal debt concerns, as they could pay off over half their debt using a single year’s $54 billion free cash flow. While Meta derives nearly all revenue from advertising, their ecosystem’s self-sustaining network effect differentiates them from search-based advertising platforms like Google, which face higher switching costs.
Meta’s costs are well-managed, with R&D representing about 27% of revenue (down 3% since 2022) and “cost of revenue” at approximately 18%. The company initiated a $5 billion dividend in 2024 (0.34% yield) and has authorized $51.28 billion in share buybacks for 2025. Of its $33.92 billion in marketable securities, only $1.2 billion are in equities, with the rest in government and corporate bonds.
Applying Hamilton Helmer’s 7 Powers framework provides further insight into Meta’s competitive position. While Meta doesn’t benefit significantly from Scale Economies in its digital products (though this could change with AR hardware production), it excels in Network Economies—one of the most difficult powers to establish. Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger are valuable precisely because everyone uses them, creating a self-reinforcing ecosystem that newcomers struggle to replicate. This explains why Threads, despite being well-designed, hasn’t yet achieved the network effect that X maintains with its established user base.
Meta doesn’t currently demonstrate Counter-Positioning (being the incumbent rather than the disruptor) or significant Switching Costs (users can easily deactivate accounts). While Meta has exceptionally strong Brand recognition with Facebook and Instagram, this doesn’t translate to premium pricing for users since the platforms are free, though it may help command higher advertising rates. The company’s developing technologies in AR and MTIA chips could eventually become Cornered Resources, but they’re still in early development. Process Power advantages aren’t apparent in Meta’s operations currently.
The investment thesis is straightforward: Meta controls an immense Family of Apps with a wide moat that has remained dominant for decades, generating massive advertising revenue. This cash flow funds what could be the most significant change in human-technology interaction since the iPhone. The Orion prototype, while currently bulky, represents a vision with broader appeal than niche VR headsets like Apple’s $3,500 Vision Pro. With prudent financial management, global growth, and a clear technological vision, Meta is positioning itself at the forefront of the next computing paradigm—making it a compelling “wonderful company at a fair price” investment opportunity even at a PE of 25, with greater potential if the ratio drops to 20 or lower.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 262 hedge fund portfolios held META at the end of the fourth quarter which was 235 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of META as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than META but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
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