Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) certainly stands out as one of the bigger “deals” to be had in big tech for those looking to play the value side of the AI trade. Undoubtedly, when it comes to the Magnificent Seven, investors might wish to be more selective with which members of the famed group they buy going into the new year.

Whether that’s due to the variance in performance between the individual names, the different slates of expectations set ahead of them, or their potential to make up ground in this AI race, there are reasons to get pickier when it comes to the most magnificent names atop this market.

Since it feels unlikely that the non-stop chatter about stretched stock valuations, bubbles, and all the doubts that AI can live up to its potential will pull back in the new year, investors might need to increase their tolerance for turbulence going into the new year, especially with the companies that have been spending far more than your average investor might be comfortable with.

Shares of Meta certainly appear dirt-cheap, but are expectations too elevated given its AI spend?

At this juncture, the higher the AI spending bar, the higher the expectations bar is likely to be in the new year, and for companies like Meta Platforms, it seems like the shares are looking relatively cheap for a reason. But what happens if there are decent returns that lie just a bit further down the road that investors and analysts can’t yet see?

In such a case, shares of Meta Platforms may very well be in for more consolidation or even downside before investors come to the realization that its AI strategy is paying off, perhaps many times over. Some upbeat analysts over at Morgan Stanley seem to think that the new year could be incredibly kind to the social-media juggernaut.

Notably, they see revenue re-acceleration at the hands of stronger ad demand as well as improved performance of ads at the hands of AI. Add Reels and WhatsApp business messaging momentum into the equation, and it certainly feels like 2026 will see enough of an AI return to soothe the fears of the rising tide of AI spend. 

Another bull, Colin Sebastian, over at Baird, also thinks 2026 could be a good year for Meta Platforms shares. He thinks new AI models (think closed-source Avocado and Mango models, as Meta Platforms moves on from its open-source LLaMA model) might help push the name to $815 per share. Undoubtedly, the sudden and surprising shift from open-source to closed-source models might be a head-scratcher for some. Either way, it seems to be the right way to go, especially given industry trends.

The bottom line

I think Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg can deliver more than a few surprises in the new year, as the company potentially looks to give investors what they want over the near- to medium-term while also ensuring enough is spent on the long-term opportunity at hand. On the one hand, some of the bears see the firm as spending a bit too much on AI efforts. On the other hand, some skeptics might see Meta Platforms as “lagging” in the AI race.

Undoubtedly, there’s room to catch up if Meta AI is to catch up to the likes of the current leaders. Either way, it’s just too easy to be bearish on the stock right here. And that’s why the stage might be set for a big rally that helps shares catch up to the rest of the Mag Seven after a rough, but still positive (shares up 11% year to date) year.

At the time of this writing, Meta Platforms’ shares are going for 22.1 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E). That’s the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven, thanks in part to the nasty decline the stock encountered back in October.