Quick Read

• Meta reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 29 with revenue guidance of $53.5B to $56.5B, while committing $115B to $135B in 2026 CapEx (up from $69.69B in 2025), primarily for AI infrastructure and talent, having secured multi-year deals with Amazon AWS for Graviton5 chips, Corning for fiber-optic supply, and a 20-year nuclear power agreement with Vistra.

• Meta’s massive AI spending surge hinges on whether advertising revenue growth near 30% can justify the capex investment, as operating margins have already compressed 700 basis points year-over-year and Reality Labs losses continue at $19.2B annually.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) reports Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, April 29, after market close. Management has guided Q1 revenue to $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, embedding what CFO Susan Li called an outlook for accelerated growth. Shares trade around $675, up 29% over the past month and 3% year to date.

The stock now carries a P/E of 29, leaving little margin for error on the only question that matters: Is the AI buildout paying for itself?

The AI CapEx Number That Defines 2026

Meta has committed $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, a step up from $69.69 billion in 2025. Total expenses are guided to $162 billion to $169 billion, driven primarily by infrastructure costs and AI talent compensation.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks. Get them here FREE.

The supply chain is locking in. Meta signed a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar deal with Amazon AWS for Graviton5 CPU chips, a $6 billion fiber-optic supply agreement with Corning for AI data centers, and a 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement with Vistra. Investors will want any additional commentary on MetaCompute, the silicon roadmap, and whether 2026 capex drifts toward the high end of the range.

3 Things to Watch on AI Spend

1. Operating Margin Trajectory

Q4 2025 operating margin compressed to 41% from 48% a year earlier, a 700 basis point swing as total costs rose 40% YoY. Management still expects 2026 operating income to exceed 2025. A Q1 result holding the 41% line, with operating income tracking above last year, would validate that thesis. A drop into the 30s would not.

2. Ad Revenue Acceleration

The case for the spend rests on advertising. Q4 saw ad impressions up 18% YoY and average price per ad up 6%, with advertising revenue of $58.14 billion, up 24% YoY. Morningstar expects ad growth nearing 30% this quarter, helped by a 4% FX tailwind. Anything below 20% ad growth would feed the AI ROI skepticism already visible on Reddit, where one widely-circulated post asked “is anyone actually making money from AI or is it just the chip sellers?”