MGIC Investment (MTG) shares have moved slightly over the past week, showing a modest uptick while maintaining stability for much of the month. Investors may be keeping a close eye on this US mortgage insurer’s fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for MGIC Investment.

Looking beyond this week’s mild bump, MGIC Investment’s 15.7% year-to-date share price return and an impressive 199.7% total shareholder return over five years suggest momentum has been steady. Investors have shown renewed confidence in its long-term fundamentals.

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With the stock trading just below analyst price targets and showing only a modest discount to intrinsic value, the question lingers: is MGIC Investment undervalued, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Compared to the last close price of $27.38, the most widely followed narrative estimates MGIC Investment’s fair value at $27.33, placing it essentially in line with the market. This invites a closer look at the fundamentals and expectations supporting this pricing.

Strong investment in operational efficiency and technology-driven cost controls, along with stable operating expenses, signal potential for margin expansion and greater bottom-line profitability in future periods.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what underpins this nearly perfect match between narrative fair value and today’s price? The core of this story lies in analysts’ bold projections for future revenue expansion, shrinking margins, and falling profits. Click to see which cash flows, growth assumptions, and discounts shape this precise estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $27.33 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistently flat core business growth and ongoing affordability challenges could limit MGIC’s policy expansion and put long-term earnings under pressure.

Find out about the key risks to this MGIC Investment narrative.

Shifting focus from the analyst consensus, let’s see what the market’s current pricing ratios suggest. MGIC Investment trades at 8.3 times earnings, which is notably lower than both its peer average of 9.5x and the US Diversified Financial industry at 16.6x. The fair ratio is higher at 12.4x, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the company relative to benchmarks and regression trends. Does this gap offer real value, or are there risks that explain the discount?