Strategy is now worth less than the Bitcoin it owns — at least according to one key metric.

The company’s market-to-net-asset value, also known as mNav, dropped to 0.879 this week, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. This metric tells investors how much equity value they’re paying for every $1 of crypto the company holds.

In Strategy’s case, investors are spending roughly 80 cents for every $1 of Bitcoin the company holds, which raises a very uncomfortable question.

If the stock trades at a discount to Bitcoin, why not just buy Bitcoin?

Strategy has long traded at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, acting as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s price.

That premium — which hit 1.8x in May — has evaporated as Bitcoin tumbled 30% this month, pricing out bullish expectations.

It’s the first time Strategy has traded below 1.0 mNAV since it began buying Bitcoin way back in August 2020.

Analysts say the compression is cyclical, not structural. But it marks a dramatic reversal for a company that convinced Wall Street to pay multiples above net asset value.

It’s Bitcoin

For André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, the drop below one reflects lower expectations for Bitcoin’s performance, and not a fundamental problem with Strategy’s business model.

“An mNAV below one is largely reflective of lower Bitcoin performance expectations which are baked into the mNAV,” Dragosch told DL News.

He pointed to the strong correlation between Strategy’s mNAV and Bitcoin futures curves. As futures flattened — indicating that traders are pricing out bullish expectations — Strategy’s premium compressed.

“The moment Bitcoin rises again, we should see an expansion of the mNAV as well,” Dragosch said. “I personally think that the decline below one is largely cyclical and not structural.”

Alexandre Schmidt, head of research of CoinShares agreed.

“Strategy has historically behaved as a leveraged play on Bitcoin and what we are seeing now is consistent with that pattern,” he told DL News.

An unsustainable summer

Several digital asset treasury companies have traded below mNAV since the summer. Strategy held out longer than most, but ultimately couldn’t escape the broader compression.

“The extreme levels at which DATs traded over the summer — in some cases, 3x, 5x or even 7x mNAV — were not sustainable and eventually unwound,” Schmidt said.

Those premiums made sense when Bitcoin was rallying, and retail investors wanted leveraged exposure. But as Bitcoin’s momentum stalled, flows rotated away from treasuries, some even risking delisting from the New York Stock Exchange.

October, in fact, recorded the lowest amount of buying by Bitcoin treasuries in 2025.

“Compared with its peers, MSTR has had one of the more stable mNAV trajectories,” Schmidt noted.

Legendary short seller Jim Chanos warned about this exact scenario in July, comparing Bitcoin treasury companies to the SPAC mania of 2021.

“We are seeing SPAC-like 2021 numbers in the Bitcoin treasury market right now,” Chanos said on the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. SPACs raised $90 billion in three months before collapsing spectacularly, something could be unravelling today as companies start to slip below their Bitcoin holdings.

Chanos has been betting against Strategy’s premium since May, arguing the treasury model is built on financial engineering rather than sustainable business fundamentals.

By early November, Chanos began to unwind his short position.

Strategy’s diluted mNAV sits at 0.980, slightly better than its basic mNAV of 0.879. Its enterprise value mNAV — which accounts for debt — is 1.143, meaning the company still commands a slight premium when adjusted for leverage.

All eyes on Bitcoin

Both Dragosch and Schmidt expect Strategy’s mNAV to recover if Bitcoin rallies.

But the days of triple premiums may be over.

“Looking ahead, it is unlikely that we see mNAV levels as high as in the summer,” Schmidt said.

Strategy holds 649,870 Bitcoin worth about $56 billion at an average cost of $74,430 per coin.

The company is up 16.3% on its holdings despite Bitcoin’s recent selloff.

But its stock has fallen harder than Bitcoin, reflecting the market’s scepticism about the treasury model in a risk-off environment.

Pedro Solimano is DL News’ Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him atpsolimano@dlnews.com.