A popular Reddit investment, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has lost 56.9% of its value, recently trading near $138, yet continues to buy bitcoin at a pace that has made it the largest U.S. equity issuer for two consecutive years. Reddit’s composite sentiment score sits at 28 out of 100, firmly bearish, with debate concentrated in derivatives communities. The central question: can the company’s “BTC Yield” metric, which measures bitcoin per-diluted-share growth, outpace the dilution required to generate it?

Strategy’s FY2025 BTC Yield came in at 22.8%, meaning each share represents more bitcoin than a year ago, however, the company’s own target was 30%. More importantly, the firm raised $25.3 billion in capital during 2025 and now holds 713,502 BTC. The cost: a 52.6% expansion in share count in 2025 alone, from roughly 192.5 million to nearly 294 million shares, all while Q4 produced a $12.44 billion net loss driven by a $17.44 billion unrealized loss on digital assets as bitcoin prices fell late in the year.

All three Reddit sentiment data points captured over the past 72 hours show bearish scores between 28 and 30, with 100% of qualified mentions originating in r/options rather than long-term investing forums. Peak activity hit Monday evening at 9 PM ET, generating 60 comments in a single hour. One r/options thread titled “2026 leaps” had users listing Strategy puts on their watchlist. One commenter wrote: “MSTR $120 Dec 26 PUT… these are on my watchlist.”

This infographic details MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings and financial performance, alongside a bearish Reddit social sentiment score driven by recent losses, share dilution, and derivatives activity.

2026 leaps
by u/deleted in r/options

 

Have You read The New Report Shaking Up Retirement Plans? Americans are answering three questions and many are realizing they can retire earlier than expected.

The bearish case rests on three concerns:

• Authorized shares raised to 10.33 billion Class A shares, giving management near-unlimited capacity to dilute common holders.

• Perpetual preferred obligations rank above common equity, and the STRC preferred has grown to $3.4 billion, with its variable rate now at 11.25%, up from 9% earlier in the year. Each increase raises the hurdle BTC Yield must clear to benefit common shareholders.

• Bitcoin is down 19.7% year-to-date to near $70,218, while Polymarket traders assign only a 30% probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, the threshold Strategy needs for its leveraged model to generate meaningful gains.