As “Uptober” nears the midway point, crypto traders are positioning themselves for what may be coming next—in particular, for Bitcoin and XRP, two of the oldest and largest crypto assets by market cap.

And traders on Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, are placing their bets. At the moment, Myriad users give Bitcoin a nearly 54% chance to sooner hit $140,000 per coin than drop down to $110K. On XRP, Myriad traders place the odds at 56% that the Ripple-linked token moons to $4 before falling to $2.

The slight bullish tilt makes sense given the broader market context. Bitcoin, currently trading for around $120,000 at a $2.4 trillion market cap, recently hit all-time highs above $126,000, driven by over $3 billion in spot ETF inflows and continued U.S. government shutdown concerns that have heightened safe-haven demand. XRP, meanwhile, is holding steady near $2.79, at a market cap above $167 billion, after hitting an all-time high of $3.65 back in July.

Conviction or merely hopium? Here’s what the charts have to say about it:

Bitcoin (BTC) price: Short distance favors the bears

With Bitcoin at just above $120,000, Myriad traders are asked to ponder whether a 16.46% move up to $140K, or a 8.49% move down to $110K is more likely. Just straight math favors the bearish scenario: If percentage distance matters, then a smaller move is an easier path. But prediction markets, as a gauge of aggregated sentiment, are more than just math, and the sentiment is undoubtedly bullish.

In this case, though, the math revealed in the charts may ultimately favor the bulls too.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 56.47 out of 100—neutral, slightly bullish territory. RSI measures momentum, with numbers below 30 signalling oversold conditions and numbers above 70 suggesting an overbought market.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, for BTC is at 30 points, which confirms Bitcoin’s bullish mood. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 confirming a trend. At 30, there’s enough steam in Bitcoin’s bullish train.

Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, give traders a sense of price supports and resistances over short, medium, and longer time frames. And right now for Bitcoin, they paint a mixed picture. The 50-day EMA is still above the 200-day EMA, in a formation traders refer to as a “golden cross”—a classic bullish signal.

But both EMAs are running nearly parallel, suggesting consolidation rather than acceleration.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows volatility has already been released. The “off” status combined with the “bullish Impulse” signal suggests Bitcoin has completed its explosive phase and is now in a measured uptrend. All things considered, traders would likely interpret this setup to mean there’s steadier gains to come rather than parabolic moves in the near term.

Key levels

• Immediate resistance: $125,000 (recent highs and psychological level)
• Strong resistance: $128,000 (pitchfork upper boundary, breakout confirmation)
• Immediate support: $116,000 (50-day EMA zone and recent accumulation)
• Strong support: $110,000 (psychological level and options strike concentration)

XRP price: Farther to moon than to doom

If you are betting on XRP, you better grab a beer and watch some Netflix, because this market could last for a long while if things continue the way they’re going.

XRP, currently at $2.79, needs a 43.4% rally to hit $4 and a 28.3% drop to reach $2. The downside target is significantly closer—statistically more likely to be hit first. And yet, again, Myriad traders favor the bullish sentiment, still expecting a moon scenario before any doom hits their bags.

In this case, the technicals reinforce the bearish skew. XRP’s RSI is at 41.22, well below the neutral 50 line, indicating mild selling pressure. The ADX at 12.82 is very weak and signals no trend, which means bulls have lost control. In such environments, short-term trades around support and resistance tend to outperform holding for big breakouts.

The low ADX also suggests that when a trend does emerge, the move could be explosive since the market has been coiled in this directionless phase, so keep an eye on that.

Moving averages look optimistic at first glance: the 50-day EMA sits above the 200-day EMA. But both are flat and parallel—the trend has stalled.

XRP is currently trading inside a triangle pattern with an upper boundary near $3. Hitting $4 would require a breakout above this multi-month structure—usually needing a major catalyst. “In the ETFs, we trust”?

Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $3.00 (psychological barrier and triangle resistance)
• Strong resistance: $3.40 (secondary resistance, July highs)
• Immediate support: $2.70 (pitchfork lower boundary, recent consolidation low)
• Strong support: $2.00 (major psychological level and prediction market target)

Which way for Bitcoin and XRP?

Both prediction markets show slight bullish leans, but the technicals suggest betting against the crowd might not be a bad idea. Bitcoin needs a 16.46% rally to reach $140K versus just 8.49% to hit $110K—nearly twice the distance, and that edge matters in prediction markets where “first” is all that counts.

BTC just touched its all-time high at $126K earlier this week. Markets rarely blast through record levels and immediately tack on another 11% without a breather. For XRP, the math is clearer: a 43.4% rally to $4 versus a 28.3% drop to $2 in a trendless market favors the downside. With 56% of Myriad traders betting on $4, the crowd is clearly pricing in those October ETF approvals—assuming the U.S. government shutdown doesn’t persist. (In case you’re curious, the odds on Myriad that the shutdown ends before mid-October have dropped all the way down to just 18%, from a high of 56% last week.)

Neither bet is a slam dunk. Could both BTC and XRP reverse and hit their higher targets later? Absolutely. But these markets aren’t asking where these assets end up eventually; they’re asking what happens first. And first usually means the path of least resistance wins over bullish narratives.