Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the United States over a proposed “minerals-for-security” pact could threaten China’s long-standing dominance in the central African nation’s mining industry, though analysts warn the path ahead is fraught with complexity.

Kinshasa has offered Washington access to its vast mineral wealth as part of a broader plan to end violence in the country’s east, where fighting has intensified this year after the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized strategic cities. In return, the DRC is seeking security guarantees and military support, with hopes that a closer partnership with the US will also encourage American investment and lessen its economic reliance on China.

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Under the proposal, the US would deploy diplomatic and economic levers to help broker peace, while gaining access to critical minerals — a move that could reshape competition with China, which currently dominates mining operations across the DRC,
South China Morning Post reported.

“President [Felix] Tshisekedi and I discussed a minerals deal and charted a path forward,” Massad Boulos, Donald Trump’s adviser for Africa, said at a recent briefing about his trip to Kinshasa.

Experts suggest the arrangement may mirror China’s own “minerals-for-infrastructure” deal struck with the DRC in 2007, in which Chinese firms agreed to develop infrastructure in exchange for access to key resources like copper and cobalt.

Joseph Cihunda, a law lecturer at the University of Kinshasa and project officer at Southern Africa Resource Watch, described the emerging US-DRC agreement as a “
minerals-for-security” deal involving “the transfer of military industries, equipment and training.”

However, Cihunda cautioned that “it will be difficult to assess what needs to be exchanged to ensure a balance between the two partners.”

The US appears set to leverage infrastructure projects such as the Lobito Corridor, which aims to rebuild railway links between the DRC, Angola, and Zambia’s copper belt. By enhancing transport links, Washington hopes to diversify supply chains away from Chinese control and open up mineral flows towards American and allied markets.

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Yet forging a sustainable US-DRC deal comes with major hurdles. American firms have traditionally been reluctant to invest in the DRC, citing high risks and insecurity. As Wei Shen, a research fellow at the Institute of Development Studies in Britain, pointed out: “American companies had been hesitant to invest in the DRC and American banks ‘don’t support entrepreneurs here.’”

“So, if Trump can ask American companies to invest and then ask Wall Street to support these deals, it’s OK,” he said. Even then, he added, “all the minerals they dig up will be shipped back to China for processing” under existing global arrangements. “So even if we remove all the Chinese companies, I don’t think any Western companies can take up their role.”

The stakes are high. The DRC accounts for roughly 70 per cent of global cobalt production — a mineral vital for batteries in smartphones and electric vehicles — and is also a major supplier of copper, tin, gold, lithium, and tantalum.

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Chinese companies, through a series of acquisitions and contracts, have come to dominate the sector. Chief among these was the $6 billion
minerals-for-infrastructure deal signed in 2007 under then-president Joseph Kabila, involving state-owned enterprises such as China Railway Group, Sinohydro Corporation, and private players like Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt.

This barter deal — an example of resource-backed loans — was renegotiated in 2023 following Congolese grievances that it disproportionately favoured Chinese interests. The revised agreement was scaled up to a $7 billion infrastructure package, aiming for greater equity.

Chris Berry, head of the US-based commodities advisory firm House Mountain Partners, suggested that the Trump administration’s approach appeared to be purely transactional. “I assume the administration would help ‘keep the peace’ and, in exchange, gain access to mine critical minerals,” he said.

Some signs of change have emerged. Following the visit by the US envoy, Alphamin Resources — a US-based company — announced earlier this month that it would initiate a “phased” resumption of operations at its Bisie tin mine in the conflict-prone Walikale district. The announcement came after M23 forces withdrew from the site following “discussions with parties involved in the conflict.” Rwanda has denied any links to the M23 rebels.

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According to Cihunda, the DRC’s mining sector remains underdeveloped, offering ample room for new entrants. “There’s plenty of room for investors in both exploration and mining,” he said. “The major challenge is to improve the business climate.”

Whether the US-DRC deal can overcome these hurdles remains uncertain — but the strategic battle over Africa’s minerals is clearly entering a new phase.