Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft Are 'Big Winners' With Rising Earnings Revisions, Says G

Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft Are ‘Big Winners’ With Rising Earnings Revisions, Says G

October 28, 2025

As the tech world braces for a flurry of earnings reports from the Magnificent 7 companies this week, market expert Gary Black has identified Nvidia Corp., Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., and Microsoft Corp. as the clear “big winners” based on rising year-to-date earnings revisions.

Black’s recent X post highlighted these four titans as significantly outperforming the benchmark Nasdaq 100 index, even as the remaining Mag 7, Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Tesla Inc., face more modest revisions or, in Tesla’s case, recent misses.

The impending earnings season arrives with high anticipation. Black’s analysis underscores a divergence in performance, showing Alphabet leading the pack with an impressive 41.60% return. It is followed closely by Nvidia at 38.45%, Microsoft at 26.98%, and Meta at 25.30%.

These figures all dramatically outpace the major benchmarks, including the Nasdaq 100 and its tracking ETF, the Invesco QQQ Trust, at a 23.10% YTD gain. The top performers also notably beat the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, which is up 24.59% YTD.

Conversely, the other three members of the group have lagged the benchmarks: Tesla is up 19.28%, Apple has gained 10.24%, and Amazon shows a 3.07% YTD return. The focus remains on Tesla, whose recent third-quarter 2025 earnings report hit its $0.50 EPS estimate exactly, resulting in a 0.00% surprise.

Stocks	YTD Performance	One Year Performance
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)	38.45%	36.27%
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)	10.24%	15.17%
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT)	26.98%	24.60%
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)	3.07%	20.48%
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)	41.60%	60.35%
Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)	25.30%	29.86%
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)	19.28%	72.34%
Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ)	23.10%	26.78%
Nasdaq 100	23.10%	26.88%
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS)	24.59%	38.02%

Historical data from Benzinga Pro further illuminates these trends. Amazon, despite its lower YTD performance, boasts the best average earnings surprise over the past four quarters at 23.58%, consistently beating estimates.

Meta follows closely with a 19.23% average surprise. Alphabet and Nvidia have also shown strong surprise percentages, averaging 15.40% and 12.02%, respectively, signaling their capacity to exceed analyst expectations.

Microsoft has delivered consistent, albeit smaller, beats averaging 6.60%. In contrast, Apple‘s surprises have been more modest at 4.22%, while Tesla‘s average surprise landed in negative territory at -6.27%, largely due to a significant first-quarter 2025 miss.

Looking ahead to this week’s reports, Benzinga Pro projects a solid quarter for the leaders. Amazon is estimated to report $1.58 EPS, Apple $1.76, Microsoft $3.80, Alphabet $2.27, and Meta $8.10.

These estimates, while robust, place additional pressure on these companies to not only meet but potentially exceed these revised expectations to maintain their “winner” status in the eyes of the market.

The varied fiscal calendars mean not all companies will be reporting the third quarter. While AAPL will deliver its fourth quarter earnings, MSFT will release its first quarter earnings, adding another layer of complexity to the overall picture of the tech sector’s health.

On Tuesday, the futures of the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the S&P 500 index ended 1.23% higher at 6,875.16, whereas the Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.83% to 25,821.54. On the other hand, Dow Jones advanced 0.71% to end at 47,544.59.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Chung Hao Lee / Shutterstock