The artificial intelligence chip king, Nvidia (NVDA 2.33%), has been on a long, dominant run for several years now. The company is seen as the best picks-and-shovels play in what could be a game-changing sector that impacts nearly all aspects of our daily lives. However, a tough run this year and recent export restrictions targeting China have now sprouted the first sell rating from a Wall Street analyst.

Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg recently downgraded Nvidia to a sell rating and issued a $100 price target, the lowest on Wall Street. Nvidia and the rest of the AI sector, as well as the entire stock market, certainly face a tough near-term macroeconomic outlook. Should investors be worried?

Goldberg, in his research note, suggested that the upside from AI is “priced in for now.” Goldberg is also bearish due to his belief that the company’s biggest customers “are all looking to design their own chips,” and “it’s likely that AI budgets slow in ’26.”

The desire to have custom AI chips could be a trend, but it’s more likely that AI broadens its reach to a much bigger customer base that may be looking for third-party solutions to keep up with competition instead of outright being a leader. Nvidia still makes the most advanced chips, and it doesn’t look to be at any risk of losing this market-leading position. Even in China, where Huawei reportedly began testing a chip to rival Nvidia, it’s only going to rival the company’s H100 Hopper chip, which isn’t even the company’s most recent design.

Image source: Nvidia.

The rest of 2025 could be tough sledding for Nvidia, but the company’s valuation of 26 forward times earnings estimates is quite reasonable. Its dominant position, both in market share and innovation, should help it overcome near-term hurdles, making the stock a long-term buy for any investor who believes in the AI opportunity overall.