0:00 spk_0

Welcome to Morning Brief presented by Robinhood, the home to commission-free trading. I’m Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. Let’s fire up three things you need to know on this day after Christmas trading session. First up, I remain on Santa Claus rally watch as the Grinch may not rip this from the mouths of the bulls. Stocks flirting with fresh records as the Santa rally period is now underway. A little news you can use here.The Sox have enjoyed a Santa Claus rally in nearly 80% of the last 50 years. The largest Santa Claus rally of the 21st century occurred from late 2008 to early 2009. During this period, the S&P 500 advanced 7.4% in a much needed rebound following the steep sell-off in October 2008. Plus, the year’s red hot run up in precious metals has broken new ground today, no pun intended, actually it was.I wrote this. Gold is at another record. Silver is at a new record and up 40% in the past month. Quick fun fact here. Shares of top gold and silver miner Freeport McEbra are up a sizzling 28% in the last month. The stock has shot up 8% in the last five sessions alone. Hope that earnings report is good from them in a few weeks. And Nvidia has made its largest acquisition ever buying assets from 9-year-old AI chip startup Gronk.For roughly $20 billion Grok was just valued at $6.9 billion in the $750 million capital raise three months ago. Grok founder and CEO Jonathan Ross will join Nvidia as an employee, while Google Ross, while at Google Ross designed custom chips that the tech giant would go on to train its AI models on. Ross is no joke. Let’s get a check on the markets here on the day after Christmas.And uh you can see it right there. Things are looking pretty meager out there, thin trading volumes, not much going on, but the markets are open for business.Alright, investing in AI has been a moneymaker in 2025, with big tech stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet helping to drive up the NASDAQ more than 20% this year. But there are growing concerns that AI stocks could be overvalued and headed for doom in 2026. I spoke to Wedbush tech analyst and tech bull Dan Ives about all this.Dan, good to see you. Don’t know where to start, so I’m gonna start on Nvidia. Uh, I mentioned at the top, we’re seeing, uh, the Bulls return to Nvidia, uh, not in a big way, but I would say in a nice way. What’s the play there?

2:17 spk_1

Look, I think the reality is China’s going to reopen, you know, for Nvidia, and I think that’s something that wasn’t necessarily factored in fully. I think investors are realizing it’s a big change in the Beltway. And look, Saz, the reality is there’s one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and, and that’s Nvidia. And I think as it plays out, numbers are significantly underestimated. I think 15 to 20% at a minimum going in 2026.Put that together, I think we’re looking at a $250 stock in a base case to end 2026.

2:51 spk_0

Another case for Nvidia, Dan, is, is it this, and you can tell me if I’m wrong, you know, you and I have, have known each other for, for many, many years. It’s OK. We have a debate here, um, that Nvidia has less exposure to OpenAI than its rival AMD because AMD might be partially owned by OpenAI in 10 years.

3:10 spk_1

Look, right now, the reality is, is that, you know, associated with open AI is a bad thing. Now I disagree with that. Just, I mean, you’ve talked about it, but no doubt from a trade perspective, Nvidia, you know, they’re obviously like they’re not wed to an open AI, and I think to some extent.You know, I think you’ve talked about it. When you look at the divergence of those related to OpenAI, you know, whether it’s Oracle or Microsoft or whatever it may be, you know, those stocks are obviously under more pressure. But look, my view is, as we go into 2026, investors are underestimating the scale and scope of the.AI revolution for Nvidia, for OpenAI, for Oracle, which I think is table pounded here despite, you know, obviously a lot of the negative sentiment for Palantir and others, because look, only 3% of companies in the US have gone down the AI path, and for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.

4:06 spk_0

Dan, later on in the show, I’m gonna have uh Marianne Bartels on, uh, really excited to talk to her. She’s making the case that tech might see, her words, not mine, a reset year next year, but then go off on a very strong bull run looking out over the next decade. If there is a reset in tech, let’s just say the first quarter next year, what, what triggers that?

4:25 spk_1

Yeah, look, and she, and she obviously always has great thoughts.I think my view is, look at the white knuckle moments, whether they’re resets or whatever you may call it, like they create the opportunities. I mean, go back to, you know, we’ll be at CES again, go back to a year ago, right? I mean, Jensen comes out, the black leather jacket, I think even maybe potentially diamond studs in the back or whatever.You know, talk about Quantum.

4:48 spk_0

I think that’s your jacket, Dan. I think

4:49 spk_1

that’s your, I, I think that could be your jacket dollars, but, but, but we, we’re getting off topic. But the point is, look, the reality is negative on Quantum. Remember the sentiment going to the deep seek moment in January. You’re gonna have these moments, but my view is like you’re in year 3 of an 8 to 10 year buildout of the AIrevolution.

5:09 spk_0

Outside of, uh, Nvidia. I love what some of the thoughts you’ve been putting on your X account, Dan, on, uh, Tesla.Now, I, I’m sure you saw the photos of Waymos getting stuck in San Francisco with the power outage, and my first thought was, uh, this is everything that could go wrong with the Tesla robotaxi.

5:27 spk_1

Look, my view is 2026 is going to be probably the most important year, I’d say maybe in its history for Musk and Tesla, because look, the autonomous chapter now comes to Tesla, 30 cities where we see robotaxis, you know, ultimately in the United States. Are there going to be issues? Are there going to be speed bumps? Could there be?Delays here and there, yeah, I mean, obviously you saw the blackout in terms of Waymo in San Francisco, but look, I think next 3 to 4 years, 20% of vehicles are going to be autonomous, and I think that ultimately is where it’s heading. And that’s why I think when it comes to physical AI plays, the best physical AI plays in the world are Nvidia and Tesla.

6:10 spk_0

How much value, Dan, are you assigning to Tesla’s robotics initiatives?

6:16 spk_1

A trillion is what conservatively we view. I mean, look, if you, if you own Tesla here, you’re not owning it for what deliveries look like on Jan 2nd, right? I mean, you’re owning it for autonomous robotaxis, and we talk about bulk case 3 trillion, base case 2 trillion. Now look, if I showed you a year ago where numbers were going to go for Tesla this year, you’d be like, oh, the stock’s 200, 250 bucks.The reality is that investors are looking through deliveries and near term numbers to understand what the autonomous chapter is going to ultimately bring, because I could argue.Numbers could be up 4, 5x when you look out over the next 456 years. I think that’s the way to, to view a name like Tesla.

7:06 spk_0

Dan, uh, before, I want to get to pound here, but why I love you and many reasons why, uh, as you know, but one is you covered damn, you, you covered damn near everything. So if Tesla’s going to dominate in robotaxis, what does that mean to a General Motors and a Ford who are not really playing in this industry at all?

7:22 spk_1

Well, first of all, to lump GM and Ford together, I disagree. I mean, I think, I think what Mary’s done and Paul at GM has been Hall of Fame moment for them, right? And the stock, I think, speaks for that. They’ve been able to navigate supply chain issues, pull back on EVs, but I believe like GM is in a much better situation.And again, they’re gonna kind of pick their spots. Ford obviously much more back against the wall, and we see that in terms of what far we’re trying to navigate. Look, I think what it means for the GM and Ford’s, they gotta pick their spots. They gotta figure out how they’re gonna go down the autonomous chapter. Do they eventually partner at one point with Tesla? I don’t think that that’s out of the realm, given where we see the autonomous world heading.

8:08 spk_0

And Dan, making some good points here. General Motors shares up about 56% year to date. Ford about 35% year to date. They’re just coming off a big, almost $20 billion charge uh to their EV business. Dan, so on Palantir, I know you’re watching this name. Is this, is Palantir double next year? And if so, why?

8:24 spk_1

I think it’s a $1 trillion mark cap next 2 to 3 years. I, I think investors are underestimating how disruptive Palantir is on the enterprise. We’ve justWe, they, they’ve, they’ve just started to tap into that market on the commercial business. So, now, is it’s super expensive, of course. But if you look at the next 345 years, like I view it as like, it’s gonna be the next Salesforce, the next Oracle, however you want to think about it in terms of, on the software side, and I think Carp’s playing a different game. He’s playing chess.You know, as a mastered wizard, and I think a lot of others are playing, uh, you know, checkers at the kids’ table.

9:02 spk_0

I’m, I’m loving this comparison or this duel that erupted in the fall, Dan, between Mark Benioff and Alex Carp, kind of taking shots at, you know, the other out there in media and, and X, I believe. If, if Palantir is a winner, then is Salesforce a loser?

9:17 spk_1

Look, I don’t think Salesforce is a loser because I believe Benioff’s going to be able to turn this around. Agent 4 needs to be successful. They’re probably going to have to do more acquisitions, but no doubt, like, look, Benioff, top of the mountain, the Hall of Fame, Mount Rushmore CEO. But for the first time in many, many years, like there’s, I won’t call it a code red, but like there’s a threat to the business model, and I think they have to adjust. And that’s why when you look at Palantir with no direct salespeople doing what they’re doing.I think that it’s a shot across the bow, not just at Salesforce, at ServiceNow with the traditionalsoftware.

9:53 spk_0

Dan, hit me with a tech stock you hate.

9:56 spk_1

Look, Adobe is the one, I wouldn’t say hate, but Adobe is the one that’s probably under the most pressure, given you think about AI, what it’s doing to their business model, what they need to prove, massive success story obviously over the decades. But I think when you think about AI as a threat to a business model, I think Adobe, like, look, they’re going through like a turbulent little white knuckle period here.

10:22 spk_0

Yeah, why do we need, we’re not gonna be printing out PDFs anymore, right, Dan?

10:26 spk_1

Look, they gotta change, they, they’re gonna have to adjust and change part of their business model. But I mean, look, it’s no different than Salesforce, no different than Workday. I mean, these are companies like you either pivot.Or stay on the treadmill at 2.0 speed.

10:42 spk_0

Lastly, Dan, lastly, uh, this may be the last time I see you this year, and if it is, you’ve been traveling around the world all year, meeting with investors, covering this tech AI revolution. What has surprised you? Is there one thing that has absolutely blown you away this year?

10:58 spk_1

Look, I think the thing that’s maybe surprised me is just what I ultimately view as the enterprise adoption and how accelerated it’s been. Go back to capbacks a year ago, right? Concerns about AI, big tech capbacks.And, and it’s ultimately 50% higher than ultimately it was at the beginning of the year. I think that’s ultimately the thing that it’s that acceleration that surprised me the most. And maybe the other surprise, you know, obviously is, uh, you know, I was hoping for more from the Giants and Penn State, but what are you gonna do? I mean, we, we got another year nextyear.

11:33 spk_0

There’s not much you can do, Dan. You know, sometimes we’re just at the whims of bad decisions by our sports teams. Uh, Dan Ives, happy holidays to you, my friend. You too. Thanks for making time, man. Appreciate you.Coming up on Morning Brief, I have a few hot trending tickers to shout out. I’ll be right back.Welcome back to Morning Brief presented by Robinhood. Let’s fire up some trending tickers on the Yahoo Finance platform. We’re watching Nvidia Micron. First up, Nvidia, the chip giant is making its largest deal ever, acquiring the assets of AI chip startup Grok. Nvidia has reportedly paid $20 billion in cash.The companies are calling it a non-exclusive licensing agreement, plus Grok’s founder and CEO Jonathan Ross and other executives will officially join Nvidia, where remains of Grok will operate as an independent company likely focused on the cloud business. Nvidia shares are rising ahead of the open.Next, Micron. The company is set to report at a new record as the memory chip maker extends its post earnings rally. In mid-December, Micron posted earnings that blew past Wall Street expectations. One analyst even called the report the best in chip history, outside of Nvidia’s May 2023 results, which kicked off the AI stock rally.Finally, I’m watching airlines. Major winter weather bearing down on both sides of the country, set to disrupt holiday travel. Nearly 1000 flights have already been canceled Friday and hundreds just around New York City due to the threat of a major snowstorm. Between 5 to 9 inches of snow are expected, starting late Friday afternoon and into Saturday. Want to stay up to date on the weather? Of course you do. Download the awesome Yahoo Weather app. I use it around the clock. Love this app.All right, from lingering tariff questions and AI’s impact on jobs to changing Fed leadership and another election cycle, the list of things that could rip the face off the bulls next year is longer than they think. The investing backdrop may feel perfect today, but that site, that great feeling isn’t guaranteed for tomorrow. Jason Bonfield is a global advisory partner and managing director at Stewart Partners. Jason, good to see you here. Biggest concern you have on these markets going into next year?

13:44 spk_2

Yeah, thanks for having me, Brian. The, the biggest concern I really have is just that, you know, there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty. I mean, we have, you know, tariff questions and noise that’s just going to be out there that’s common in these markets, and, and we also have midterm elections. So I think there’s, there’s going to be a lot of aspects that come at investors as they go through 2026. And you know those are, that’s the biggest thing that I’m thinking about is the noise, because we’re going to have volatility because of these coming through, and it’s really going to come down toYou know, are we doing the research before they happen, or are they just going to react to it when it happens? Of

14:16 spk_0

course, Jason, there’s so much focus on what is happening with AI in this country, the infrastructure buildout, investors hanging on every single world, a word, a seal like Jensen Wong says in Nvidia. But do you think investors are forgetting that we will have a new Fed chair next year? And if that is in fact the case, can that, whoever that person may be, can they be as, I guess, dovish as the marketexpects?

14:39 spk_2

Yeah, well, we’re definitely going to get a new Fed chair in May, I think. I think that’s pretty much locked in. And you know as far as you know the markets and AI, I see a lot of impacts there with what’s going to go on withThe interpretation of, is it unemployment going up because of AI and what’s happening in that space. And we also have, you know, the baby boomers retiring at a greater scale. So, are we actually going through a weaker economy and does that make the Fed make different decisions?You know, we’re going to have to see, but I think AI is going to continue to play in. It’s not fully adopted by everyone and not all companies at this point. I mean, Nvidias, as you talk about, are, are definitely at the forefront, but as far as companies translating down and do we see that unemployment, I think that’s going to be the big pivoting point that we’re all going to look at is, is how are they going to interpret that unemployment number.

15:33 spk_0

Jason, how will you know when it’s time to rotate out of some of these big cap tech plays?

15:39 spk_2

Yeah. Well, it’s an interesting question because you know some people might say the MG 7 or the LG 7 that may happen. But I think the ultimate process here is that the market is broadening out. So a lot of people should be actually reallocating now, maybe not today, on a few of the last trading days in the sessions here, butYou know, from a tax consequence standpoint, but I think you have an opportunity in the forward months coming forward here in 2026, whether it’s January that you make a decision to kind of come out of those and reallocate. But I think, I think the point is that you should don’t just let those run because that could be a problem as we go forward.

16:20 spk_0

Where do you reallocate to?

16:23 spk_2

Yeah, yeah, I mean, I, I haven’t been a big proponent over the years of international. I think, you know, 1 out of every 10 years that they outperform and we get 7 out of 10 on the broader markets have outperformance. So I like to stay US. So you know my thought is that they’ve had a good run. They may continue it a little bit into 2026, but you know the dollar mayYou know, not strengthen, but not go down as much as it has, so that may take a little of the air out of those wings. So I’m thinking, you know, take a little out of international, look at the small caps, dollar cast average gym, but I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping a little cash on the sidelines coming into the front part of the year and just, uh, hold my nose and buy some of the dips when they happen.

17:02 spk_0

I’m asking all guests this week, Jason, their one investing resolution for next year. I have about 12 of these things, uh, as I seek to improve what I do here at Yahoo Finance. What’s on your plate?

17:13 spk_2

Yeah, well, I, I just want to, as I mentioned earlier, is that I, I want to have all the information on what I see is going to be the big noise on these midterms. Uh, I, I see that as being a little bit of a volatile factor that people are going to position on, you know, whether you consider that this is a second term for, for the current administration or mid all midterms are bad years. I, I tend to be a little bit more bullish. So, you know, I, I’m hoping for that.

17:38 spk_0

All right, Jason, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Happy holidays. Uh, we’ll be talking to you soon.

17:42 spk_2

Thank you.

17:43 spk_0

Alright, as I was just saying on resolutions, you can always be better, a better family member, a better human being toward others, not in the family and friend circles, a healthier person, hit that gym, and of course a better investor. Anyone that tells you they have the investing game all figured out is, well, a dope. Like on a scale of 1 to 10, think 15 level dopiness. You can tell them that cold hard reality came from me.While it feels as if making money in the market is easy right now, if not for all of 2025, the market could turn on a dime and run you over. Think what would happen if Nvidia came out in a few months and had a key growth rate that slowed quarter over quarter. What if that was backed up with a surprise dose of cautiousness from Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong? Or what if the new Fed chair next year isn’t as dovish.The market is currently pricing in that would severely damage the bull thesis on stocks. Whatever the case, markets do not go up in a straight line, and that should mean you try each and every day to improve at the craft of making money in markets. One way to do that is make some investing resolutions at year end and tape them to one of your 8 screens you have at your investing command post. I know you have those 8 screens. I know it.These are my 10 investing related resolutions for next year. Take less management gibberish on earnings calls as gospel, very important.Better understand the intricacies and motives behind executive compensation packages. Hold more weight toward gap financial results compared to non-gap financial results, which often backs out charges and makes earnings look too good. Assign better investing scores for companies clearly seeing profit boosts from new AI actions. Find the next 5 companies likely ripe for an activist investor attack. Go and see an AI data center being built. I need to see one of these being built. I cover these things.Every single day, I need to go see one. I need you to go out there to a construction site and see it. Better track capital expenditures at the 15 largest tech companies. Screen for the 10 cheapest members of the S&P 493, and you can do this on Yahoo Finance via our comparison tool. Become better at spotting the top 5 stock formations. Find one small cap company doing something amazing. Don’t forget small cap stocks exist.That does it for Morning Brief presented by Robin Hood. I’ll be back in just a moment on Opening bid.