Physical and biogeochemical responses of Tibetan Plateau lakes to climate change

March 17, 2025

Abstract

The lakes, rivers and glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) — a vital water resource for East Asia — are undergoing substantial environmental change. In this Review, we examine trends in the size and the physical and biogeochemical properties of TP lakes. Lake area and volume have consistently increased since 1995, with most rapid expansion in northern lakes. Between 1986 and 2022, the total area of lakes larger than 1 km2 increased from 37,109 km2 to 46,980 km2, and water storage increased by 169.7 km3, driven by warming and enhanced precipitation. In large lakes (≥10 km2), average surface temperatures increased by 1.33 °C, water transparency increased by 1 m, and salinity decreased from 48.76 to 23.76 psu. Responses in lake biogeochemistry include enhanced microbial diversity and trophic status, despite minimal additional nutrient inputs and consistent rates of productivity. Although TP lakes appear to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere (1.60, 6.87 and 1.16 Tg C yr−1 in the 2000s, 2010s and the 2020s, respectively), long-term CO2 source-sink dynamics remain uncertain. TP lake area is projected to increase by 9,000 km2 by 2050 under SSP5-8.5 and will continue to influence and enhance regional precipitation. Improved prediction of TP lake hydrology and biogeochemistry will aid sustainable management of water resources across the TP.

Key points

  • Since 1995, Tibetan Plateau lakes have increased in size by 9,871 km2 in area and 169.7 km3 in water storage. Lakes in the northern plateau have expanded at a more rapid rate than those in the southern plateau.

  • Lake surface waters have warmed on average by 1.33 °C owing to rising air temperatures. Lakes in the south have warmed at a rate of 0.44 °C yr−1, exceeding the warming rate of those in the north (0.21 °C yr−1) and resulting in weaker evaporation in the north than in the south (1,056 mm yr−1 versus 1,172 mm yr−1).

  • Lake transparency increased by 1 m and salinity decreased by 25 psu on average, with changes being much more pronounced in the north than in the south.

  • Chlorophyll a concentrations ranged between 0.1 and 16.5 μg l−1 in the TP lakes, with an average concentration of 1.4 μg l−1 across all lakes, and an average rate of decrease of 0.03 μg l−1 yr−1. However, phytoplankton and microbial species diversity and ecosystem complexity increased with decreasing salinity.

  • Measurements of CO2 fluxes across TP lakes are sparse. However, observations indicate that overall TP lakes are a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, with fluxes ranging from 1.16 to 6.87 Tg C yr−1. Lakes with higher salinity are acting as a stronger source of CO2 to the atmosphere than lakes with lower salinity.

  • Lake expansion weakens evaporation by increasing heat capacity, whereas large lakes induce enhanced precipitation by inducing large-scale atmospheric circulation, posing risks to infrastructure, settlements and agricultural land through flooding and inundation, and could potentially impact regional CO2 fluxes.

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Fig. 1: Water source and loss pathways influencing water balance in Tibetan Plateau lakes.
Fig. 2: The distribution of major lakes and their change in size between 1986 and 2022.
Fig. 3: Change in lake physical properties between 1986 and 2022.
Fig. 4: Relationships between lake properties and ecosystem complexity.
Fig. 5: Change in lake CO2 flux rates.
Fig. 6: Future impacts of continued lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the projects for Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) (2019QZKK0202), Tibet Autonomous Region key R & D project, and CAS Alliance of Field Observation Stations (KFJ-SW-YW038).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources and (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Liping Zhu, Jianting Ju, Junbo Wang, Qingfeng Ma & Shuyu Pang

  2. College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Liping Zhu & Shuyu Pang

  3. School of Geoscience and Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China

    Baojin Qiao

  4. Piesat Information Technology Co. Ltd., Beijing, China

    Chong Liu

  5. College of Agriculture and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China

    Ruimin Yang

  6. College of Earth Science and Geomatics, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing, China

    Linan Guo

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Contributions

L.Z. designed the Review and wrote the draft of the manuscript. J.J. and B.Q. revised the text and figures. B.Q. and R.Y. made water storage analyses; C.L., J.J., L.G. and J.W. made lake water physico-chemical parameter analyses. All authors made substantial contributions to discussions of its content.

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Liping Zhu, Jianting Ju or Baojin Qiao.

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Zhu, L., Ju, J., Qiao, B. et al. Physical and biogeochemical responses of Tibetan Plateau lakes to climate change.
Nat Rev Earth Environ (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00650-5

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  • Accepted: 07 February 2025

  • Published: 18 March 2025

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00650-5

 

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