In the past year, Nvidia stock has advanced 45%, bringing its market value to $5 trillion. More impressive, Palantir Technologies stock has advanced 335%, bringing its market value to $465 billion. That means the companies, in aggregate, are worth about $5.4 trillion.

Apple could surpass that figure within five years, but I have more confidence in Amazon (AMZN 0.99%) and Alphabet (GOOGL +4.89%) (GOOG +4.97%). Here’s what that implies for shareholders:

• Amazon is currently worth $2.4 trillion. Its market value must increase 129% to reach $5.5 trillion. For that to happen in five years, the stock must return about 18% annually.
• Alphabet is currently worth $3.3 trillion. Its market value must increase by 67% to reach $5.5 trillion. For that to happen in five years, the stock must return about 11% annually.

Here’s why I have confidence in those predictions.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Amazon

The investment thesis for Amazon centers on its strength in three growing markets. The company operates the largest e-commerce marketplace in North America and Western Europe, it is the third-largest adtech company, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest public cloud, as measured by infrastructure and platform services revenue.

Importantly, Amazon is working to benefit from artificial intelligence (AI) across its cloud computing and retail businesses. In cloud, AWS has added services like Bedrock for generative AI application development, as well as agentic AI tools like Amazon Q for coding and Quick Suite for business intelligence. The company has also developed custom chips for AI training and inference.

Additionally, Amazon has developed hundreds of generative AI applications to improve retail efficiency. That includes tools for customer service, demand forecasting, inventory placement, and last-mile delivery. It has also built an AI model to coordinate robot movements across its fulfillment centers, and the company is developing another model that will enable humans to interact with robots through natural language.

Amazon

Today’s Change

(-0.99%) $-2.29

Current Price

$228.01

Amazon’s operating margin increased 1.3 percentage points in the first half of 2025, after expanding more than 4 percentage points in 2024. However, Morgan Stanley estimates fulfillment and logistics costs consume more than a third of retail revenue, which leaves plenty of room for further efficiency gains as the company leans into AI and robotics.

Amazon currently trades at 35 times earnings, a reasonable valuation for a company whose earnings are forecast to increase at 19% annually in the next three to five years. If Amazon meets the consensus estimate, its market value could reach $5.5 trillion by mid-2030 while its price-to-earnings (PE) multiple drops to 33.5.

In that scenario, Amazon tops the current combined market value of Nvidia and Palantir within five years. I think that prediction is particularly likely because Amazon exceeded the consensus earnings estimate by an average of 22% in the last six quarters, which suggests earnings may grow faster than expected in the years ahead.

2. Alphabet

The investment thesis for Alphabet centers on its strength in two growing markets. It is the world’s largest adtech company due to its ability to engage users with Google Search and YouTube, by far the most popular search and video advertising platforms. Alphabet’s Google Cloud is also the third-largest public cloud, as measured by infrastructure and platform services.

While generative AI platforms like ChatGPT and Perplexity are a clear threat to Alphabet’s dominance in internet search, the company has infused Google Search with a generative experience. CEO Sundar Pichai says AI overviews have led to 10% more engagement. Additionally, Google Gemini is also the second-most popular AI chatbot behind ChatGPT, as measured by downloads.

Alphabet

Today’s Change

(4.97%) $13.69

Current Price

$288.86

In cloud computing, Alphabet trails AWS and Microsoft Azure in terms of market share. However, Forrester Research has recognized Google Cloud as a leader in large language models and artificial intelligence infrastructure, awarding the company higher scores in both categories than its largest competitors. Google gained a percentage point of market share in the second quarter, and that trend could continue in the future.

Alphabet currently trades at 29 times earnings, a fair valuation for a company whose earnings are forecast to grow at 15% annually over the next three to five years. If Alphabet meets the consensus estimate, its market value can reach $5.5 trillion by mid-2030 while its P/E multiple falls to 24.5. In that scenario, Alphabet surpasses the current combined market value of Nvidia and Palantir within five years.