Prediction market traders are placing low odds on Bitcoin reaching fresh record highs this year despite renewed enthusiasm around cryptocurrencies and expectations of lower US interest rates.

A market on the Polymarket platform showed just a 1% chance of Bitcoin hitting US$150,000 by 30 June 2026, based on trading seen on Monday. The odds improved to 7% for the end of 2026, though traders still overwhelmingly expect the cryptocurrency to remain below that level.

The contracts have attracted sizeable activity, with more than US$18 million traded on the June market alone.

Other Polymarket contracts currently imply a 61% chance of Bitcoin reaching US$90,000 by the end of 2026.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting the implied probability of an outcome occurring.

Bitcoin has rallied strongly over the past two years after the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds in the US and growing institutional adoption.

Bitcoin was trading down 1.45% over the past 24 hours at US$76,921, leaving the cryptocurrency down 4.7% over the past week.

Bitcoin traded above US$103,000 a year ago before climbing to around US$125,000 in October. Prices later fell back to roughly US$87,000 around Christmas and dropped below US$65,000 in early February, hovering around that level until rallying back above US$82,000 in the first week of May.

Traders appear sceptical that prices can more than double from current levels in little over a year, particularly as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation continue to unsettle financial markets.