00:02 Speaker A

All right, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting a third record close in a row on Monday. Yahoo Finance Jerry Blicry, stopping by now with today’s top trading day takeaways, Jerry.

00:11 Speaker B

Thank you, Miles. We got to start with record highs and may I say it has been far too long since you and I stood at a telestrator. I don’t know how many years this has been.

00:17 Speaker A

Stocks were probably at records then.

00:18 Speaker B

Yes. Yes. Uh, let’s just cycle through some of these uh record highs that we’re seeing. We got the Dow, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. You know, I was out two days last week and I missed the first Russell 2000 record closing high in four years, but that happened as well. And then we can look at some of the leaders like we got chip stocks today. Look at what happened with Nvidia. The Sox index at a record high. And so it’s just kind of spilling over into a lot of different places. and I had a chance to sit down with uh the co-founder of Motley Fool, David Gardner and we had a great conversation. He just wrote a book about breaking the rules of investing and one of the things he likes to do is buy record highs. And here’s what he had to say about buying overvalued stocks.

01:00 Speaker C

I love companies with great brands because brands are not anywhere on the balance sheet. So all of the greatest Starbucks, Tesla, Apple, all the greatest brands in the world today are being uh called overvalued because nobody’s actually putting numbers on their brand. Uh and I would also say the same thing for great founders. Where is the number on our financial statements for the CEO? His or her value or lack thereof. There is no number. There are no numbers for the things that matter most in my world. And so I love to find the right brand qualitative things that people are not um telling their computers with algorithms to chase down and these are the things that matter most in business.

01:54 Speaker B

And if you want to catch 30 minutes of that wonderful hat, we that episode drops tomorrow morning, Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. highly suggest you take a look at that. But now we got to move on. So pesky rates. Miles, you were watching the FOMC announcement the other day on Fed day.

02:20 Speaker B

We saw long-term rates jump up as the Fed cut rates and this happened last September and we haven’t seen yields really pop on the long end a lot. But let me just show you. So we were up a whopping, well this is almost nothing. Let me just show you what’s happened over the last 10 days so you can see this was Fed day. This was last Wednesday. But it’s kind of an echo of what happened uh and let’s put a one year on here last September. This was highly unusual. I’ll just circle this. You usually don’t see the Fed cutting rates and see the long end pop up like that. But that’s kind of the the way the the environment that we’re in right now. So take that with a grain of salt. The Fed is doing a lot of interesting things right now. The Fed is being shaken up and who knows where it goes.

02:59 Speaker A

You know, what’s interesting is what counts for volatility in the bond market different than the stock market, right? But I look at the one year um the one year chart of the 10 year and I say, you know, really between April and now, not a whole lot going on, especially relative to what we’ve seen in the stock market. and so many of our conversations on the show on Friday were in the context of like, yep, we saw Powell came out, he said, you know, Fed’s going to cut rates a couple more times this year. Everyone said we already knew that. And, you know, kind of the bond market didn’t do a ton, especially, you know, in terms of this like it did not rate. It did not say, oh, this is a huge change to how we’ve been thinking about it.

03:42 Speaker B

To your point, the ice B of a move index, which is the VIX of the bond market. This is a year this is a one-year chart. Look, we are at one year lows right now. So even though we did get a little pop off that announcement to your point, the volatility is going down and guess what? Stocks hate bond market volatility. And so this is very supportive of stocks right now. But I will say, let’s go back to the 10 year. We get a rapid rise back up to 4 and a half percent or if the 30 year goes all the way up to 5.1% where it’s been before, that’s going to cause a problem. So we’re not there yet, but just something to watch.

04:15 Speaker A

All right.

04:16 Speaker B

Let’s move on because we got to talk about digital and physical gold, the digital gold divide.

04:21 Speaker A

Story of the day here.

04:22 Speaker B

Yes. So, you know, what did not go up today? It was Bitcoin and the whole crypto universe. And for all the talk of uh the correlations of Bitcoin with equities or being an inflation hedgeologist. None of that worked today. And so I I remain uh skeptical that Bitcoin stays correlated with anything for a long time. I still believe in it as an asset class because the price tends to go up. Um but there’s just a lot of uh variability in the movements and the correlation that just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. So Bitcoin down to 112,000, is it the end of the world? No. Uh let’s take a look at the year to date chart and we can see it’s just been trading sideways. Uh for what is that? A month, month and a half. And so until it breaks this range, really doesn’t mean that much. Contrast that with the contrast that with gold futures here. Gold was up to another record high, 37 82, now people are talking 4,000, that seemed reasonable now.

05:22 Speaker A

Yeah, and if you know kind of go through it today, you saw uh you know, um some of the quantum stocks were getting hit, some of the meme stocks were getting hit. Meanwhile, everyone loved software, everyone loved the Nvidia trade, everyone loved what uh happened with Oracle, Tok, it’s new management structure. So it feels like um, you know, software left for dead catching a bid here. big rotation underneath the surface and even small caps getting a little bit of love today. though not a record high, not another record close. good synopsis. still lagging a little bit. All right, Jerry Blicry. Thanks so much.