The race to reduce carbon pollution in Europe will likely involve growth in renewably generated electricity as well as hydrogen fuel — though hydrogen will play “a relatively small, but critical” role, according to modeling from a recent study described in a University of Amsterdam report.

The first-of-its-kind effort to quantify the expected contributions from these energy sources could indicate paths toward realizing European “net-zero” 2050 goals and help to optimize uses of hydrogen in economic sectors where it makes its highest impacts.

Acknowledging that there are large uncertainties involved, the study’s international team of contributors projected that end-use “final energy consumption” from electricity and hydrogen under a deep decarbonization scenario “may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050.” The study was published in the journal Nature Communications in February.

Two problems the research addresses are how much and how best to emphasize hydrogen as an alternative fuel for replacing high-pollution energy sources like coal, oil, and gas. The pollution from these dirty energy sources contributes to human health risks as well as the overheating of the planet and the intensification of the extreme weather events that come with it.

Hydrogen fuel — especially “green hydrogen,” generated using renewable energy — offers high potential as a power source because it releases no pollution when used in a fuel cell. Yet the production of most hydrogen fuel today involves a process that burns natural gas. And, despite recent research breakthroughs, the importance of a “hydrogen economy” might be overstated, as was suggested in the university report. 

Other clean energy sources, such as wind and solar, have certain advantages over hydrogen — including costs, production efficiencies, and a head start on infrastructure — that can make their roles more broadly effective in nearer-term efforts to reduce carbon.

“Our research shows that it will most likely be renewable-based electrification that offers the most cost-efficient decarbonization route for most sectors of the economy,” Bob van der Zwaan, the study’s first author, said in the university report. 

“We substantiate and quantify, for the first time, the role of direct hydrogen use as an alternative clean fuel,” van der Zwaan added. “With just 6 to 10%, this projected share is relatively small. However, we do see a critical role for hydrogen in specific decarbonization pathways, in particular for heavy industry and transportation.”

The study highlighted that hydrogen could make essential contributions to decarbonization in some applications, such as for steel-making and heavy-duty vehicles.

The research was part of a collaborative effort by multiple European institutions “to establish a coherent and unified evidence base for policy development in reducing CO2 emissions,” according to the university. It took into account the interplay between different economic sectors, which the researchers referred to as “sector coupling.”

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As its key metric, the modeling assessed “final energy consumption,” which, according to the university’s summary, includes end uses such as when renewably sourced electricity is directly used or stored or when hydrogen is used in a fuel cell to power a car. In the report, Van der Zwaan acknowledged this is only a part of the potential for hydrogen. 

“In future modelling we will also include the intermediary, enabling role of hydrogen for many sustainability transitions,” he said, noting that, for example, hydrogen fuel can be used to store energy to address the fact that solar and wind are intermittent energy sources. 

Van der Zwaan indicated that the complexities of modeling for this will drive future studies: “We really have to push the boundaries there, as we are working at the limits of our knowledge.”

Ultimately, the ongoing modeling work could help Europe meet its ambitious goals to improve the planet’s future through clean electricity and hydrogen development.

As the study concluded: “To follow deep decarbonization scenarios during the forthcoming three decades … large amounts of renewable electricity need to be produced — mostly for direct electrification of different demand sectors, but some also for the production of hydrogen.”

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