North
Carolina is bracing for a Level 3 severe weather threat this week, with
damaging winds and the potential for power outages.

While storms like this
aren’t unusual in early spring, climate experts say they are becoming more
intense and arriving outside of their traditional seasons.

“As
the climate warms, our spring season is getting spread out a bit,” said Chip
Konrad, director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center and a professor at
UNC-Chapel Hill. “We’re seeing increases in severe thunderstorms into February
and even January.”

Warmer
temperatures, particularly in the Gulf, are fueling stronger storm
systems, Konrad said. As ocean waters heat up, more evaporation occurs, feeding
extra moisture into storms that move inland.

“That
can provide an extra punch for these systems to produce severe weather,” he
said.

North
Carolina has already experienced a growing number of extreme weather events.
Hurricane Helene, which made landfall last year, was a Category 4 storm that
caused billions in damage across the Southeast.

“The
climate models agree — there is an increase in major hurricanes happening,” Konrad said. “That’s what North Carolinians need to be most concerned about.”

Beyond
coastal storms, Konrad pointed to an increase in high-wind events and extreme
rainfall inland, which could lead to more flash flooding and infrastructure
damage.

Weaker
building codes may leave new homes more vulnerable

While
the science points to more extreme weather, some experts worry that North
Carolina’s infrastructure isn’t keeping up with the risks.

In
2023, state lawmakers placed a moratorium on residential building code updates
until at least 2031. That means new homes won’t be required to meet modern wind
and flood resilience standards, potentially making them more vulnerable to
storms like the one expected this week.

“We
have a beautiful state with lots of trees, and these trees grow quickly,”
Konrad said. “That’s the biggest danger when hurricanes move inland — a lot of
trees come down on houses and cars. We need to be thinking more about tree care
and cutting down trees that are too close to homes.”

NOAA
and National Weather Service staffing cuts raise concerns

There’s
another potential challenge on the horizon: the agencies responsible for
tracking these storms may have fewer resources to do so.

Last
week, the Trump administration cut hundreds of jobs at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, including
meteorologists, model developers and technicians who maintain forecasting
equipment.

Konrad
said the staffing shortages could impact forecasting accuracy, particularly for
fast-moving, high-risk storms.

“The
Weather Service was already understaffed before all this began,” he said. “Some
forecast offices lost even more. They’re really going to be challenged in the
coming months.”

The
cuts also affected teams responsible for maintaining critical weather models,
which provide forecasting data used by meteorologists worldwide. Some remote
weather balloon launch sites, which help gather atmospheric data, have already
been shuttered.

“We’re
already seeing some degradation in the quality of the information coming in,”
Konrad said. “And that just makes it harder for the forecasters we have left to
do their jobs.”

With
the spring storm season just beginning, experts say North Carolina must improve
its resilience efforts — both in terms of infrastructure upgrades and investing
in weather monitoring.

“Sooner
or later, every community will experience these extremes,” Konrad said. “The
question is whether we’ll be ready for them.”