For Bitcoin (BTC 0.69%) investors, $100,000 is a psychologically important price level. Bitcoin first hit that level in December 2024, and at the time, it looked as if the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was set to double in value in 2025.

But that hasn’t been the case at all. Bitcoin is now up a disappointing 12% for the year (as of Nov. 10), and crypto market sentiment is at its lowest level in months. Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $100,000 mark in early November, and it looks as if it could happen again before the year is over. So should you buy Bitcoin when it’s under $100,000?

Yes, buy the dip

If history is any guide, it makes sense to buy the dip on Bitcoin. That’s because, for much of the past decade, Bitcoin has been on a clear upward trajectory. Just 10 years ago, Bitcoin traded for $400. Today, it trades for $105,000.

That’s why buying the dip is a popular strategy with Bitcoin. The thinking here is that long-term, patient investors make money. Short-term speculators do not. It’s almost impossible to predict what Bitcoin will do over the next few weeks or months, but it is possible to predict what Bitcoin will do over the long haul.

Image source: Getty Images.

Bitcoin’s track record is simply unbeatable. In eight of the past 10 years, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in the world. Yes, there have been two stinker years. In 2018, Bitcoin lost 64% of its value. In 2022, Bitcoin lost 74% of its value. But the good years have more than made up for the bad years. So, if history is any guide, now is exactly the time to back up the truck and load up on Bitcoin.

From this perspective, all the news on the macroeconomic front — from tariffs to inflation — is mere noise and not signal. Historically, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with any major asset class, so it really doesn’t matter what’s happening with the rest of the market. Tech stocks and the broader market may decline, but Bitcoin could still rise in value.

No, it’s the end of the four-year cycle

However, maybe the Bitcoin bulls are getting too comfortable. Now that Bitcoin is increasingly a mainstream asset held by top institutional investors and hedge funds, it’s impossible to think that bad macroeconomic news won’t weigh heavily on the price of Bitcoin.

Moreover, keep in mind: Bitcoin historically has moved in four-year cycles. There is a period of steady price appreciation for the first two years of the cycle. Then the Bitcoin halving takes place, when the reward for mining new bitcoins is cut in half, and the price goes parabolic. This period of rapid gains typically lasts from 12 to 18 months. And then comes the crash. Quite simply, the bottom falls out on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin

Today’s Change

(-0.69%) $-738.03

Current Price

$105465.00

If you buy into the idea of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, then it’s nerve-wracking to see Bitcoin drop below $100,000. The last Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, so the period of rapid price gains should be coming to a close soon.

If Bitcoin loses 60% or 70% of its value, as it did in 2018 and 2022, then we could be talking about a price of $40,000 or even $30,000 for Bitcoin by the end of next year. Some Bitcoin bears are even calling for it to drop all the way to zero.

Buy and hold Bitcoin for at least four years

If you’re a glass half-full type of investor, then you buy the dip. All the major catalysts for Bitcoin are still in place, and the pace of institutional adoption of Bitcoin appears to be accelerating.

If you’re a glass half-empty type of investor, then you sell your Bitcoin ahead of what could be a long spiral down. And indeed, that appears to be what’s happening right now. Outflows out of the spot Bitcoin ETFs are accelerating.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature is likely not going away anytime soon. But that’s perfectly OK. As long as you plan to buy and hold for a minimum of four years (that is, until the start of the next cycle), then now could be the time to start dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin on the way down.

As long as you plan to buy and hold for a minimum of four years, Bitcoin will likely recover in price, just as it has before. From there, if all goes according to plan, it will continue its relentless climb upward.