JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.96%) recently reported impressive financial results for the three-month period that ended March 31, corresponding to first-quarter 2025. The massive banking institution exceeded Wall Street expectations, posting revenue growth of 8% and diluted earnings-per-share growth of 14%. Shares were up slightly following the upbeat announcement.

This top bank stock has been a wonderful investment in the past 10 years. Including dividends, it has produced a total return of 378%. That outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index.

But shares are facing some pressure recently, thanks to concerns about the state of the economy. They’re down 18% in the past couple of months (as of April 16). Is now a good time to invest $10,000 in JPMorgan Chase stock and hold for 10 years?

What’s not to like?

JPMorgan continues to demonstrate that it’s a dominant force in the financial services industry. It generated revenue of $45.3 billion in Q1. While net interest income was up just 1%, non-interest income soared 17%. That latter figure was boosted by a significant jump in equity markets revenue.

The business added 500,000 new checking accounts during the quarter, showcasing the ability to bring on new customers in droves. The asset and wealth management division now has $4.1 trillion in total assets under management, rising 15% year over year.

By having such a notable presence in all areas of the industry, JPMorgan benefits from a diversified business model where strength in one segment can more than offset weakness in another. That minimizes risk in the eyes of investors.

What’s more, this company has some core competitive advantages that support its long-term durability. The brand is incredibly powerful and well-known as a trusted financial partner for clients. These customers have switching costs due to their deep relationships with JPMorgan. And because of its tremendous scale, the business certainly possesses some cost advantages, being able to leverage huge expenses for things like marketing and technology.

These factors make up the company’s economic moat. This allows JPMorgan to outcompete rivals.

Dealing with the unknown

“The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics),” CEO Jamie Dimon commented in the press release.

If you look at the company’s latest financial figures, it’s hard to be pessimistic. However, the CEO’s words should force investors to at least acknowledge that we might be in for a more challenging economic environment in the near term.

I think the right move might be to give JPMorgan Chase the benefit of the doubt. The company navigated the Great Financial Crisis more than 15 years ago much better than its peers. Right now, the leadership points to healthy capital levels, although the provision for credit losses surged 75% compared to Q1 2024.

Looking ahead, it can be concerning to envision what a recessionary period would do. There could be less demand from borrowers to take out loans. Lucrative deal-making activities might dry up, and credit card consumers might start to default on their payments. This would negatively affect JPMorgan’s financial performance.

Consider the valuation

This stock has outperformed the S&P 500 in the past 10 years with a total return of 378%. Given JPMorgan Chase’s current size and market cap of $639 billion, I’m not confident it can repeat that type of performance between now and 2035.

Investors must also take the valuation into consideration. As of this writing, shares are trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.9, which is a historically expensive level, even with the stock down since mid-February.

Yes, management does a fantastic job of returning capital to shareholders, having paid $3.9 billion in dividends and $7.1 billion in stock buybacks in Q1 alone. However, that doesn’t make up for the steep valuation. Looking at the uncomfortable level of uncertainty there is about the direction the economy is headed in, perhaps JPMorgan Chase isn’t deserving of a $10,000 investment today.