Smart glasses are about to have their iPhone moment and Apple is late to the party

May 8, 2026

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Smart glasses are about to have their iPhone moment and Apple is late to the party
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Smart glasses are entering their iPhone moment in 2026, and for the first time in a generation, Meta and Google are defining the inflection. Industry projections show category sales rising from 6 million units in 2025 to 20 million units in 2026, and Apple’s flagship smart glasses do not ship until 2Q 2027, with full-display XR glasses pushed to 2H 2028.

Apple (AAPL): a fortress with no glasses on it

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) just printed $111.184 billion in Q2 FY26 revenue, up 16.6% year over year, with EPS of $2.01 versus a $1.94 estimate. Tim Cook framed the quarter around iPhone, Mac, and iPad. Glasses were not mentioned.

“iPhone achieved a March quarter revenue record, fueled by such extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup.”

AAPL trades at $287.44, up 5.83% year to date and 47.1% over one year, on a P/E of roughly 35. Polymarket traders assign just a 6% probability that Vision Pro 2 ships before 2027 and 31.5% odds of any new product line before 2027. The crowd says the same thing the earnings transcript does: no glasses yet.

Meta (META): the quiet category leader

Meta (NASDAQ:META) is funding the future at industrial scale. Reality Labs lost $4.03 billion in Q1 2026, and 2026 capex guidance was raised to $125 to $145 billion. Ray-Ban Meta is the category. Luxottica is doubling production targets to 20 million pairs by end of 2026, and Ray-Ban Meta sales tripled in 2025.

“We continue to lead the industry in AI glasses.” (Mark Zuckerberg)

Alphabet (GOOGL): the open-platform play

Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is running the Android playbook on glasses. Android XR launches in 2026 with Project Aura (Xreal), Warby Parker, Gentle Monster, and Samsung’s Galaxy XR. The Warby Parker tie-up matters because 69% of the global population needs corrective lenses. GOOGL is up 27.24% year to date on the back of Q1 revenue of $109.90 billion and 61% Cloud growth on AI workloads.

Broadcom (AVGO): the picks and shovels

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) wins regardless of which OS takes glasses. Q1 revenue grew 29.5% YoY, with AI revenue tracking to roughly $60 billion in fiscal 2026 and $106 billion by 2027. Hock Tan put it plainly:

“Broadcom achieved record first quarter revenue on continued strength in AI semiconductor solutions.”

What to watch

Apple has counter-punches. It has booked over 50% of TSMC’s 2nm capacity for 2026 and sits on $123 billion in cash with a 1 billion-plus iPhone installed base. The 2026 to 2027 narrative belongs to Meta on volume and Google on platform breadth, with Broadcom as the supplier proxy. Keep an eye on the stock heading into Apple’s 2Q 2027 launch window.