Smoking deaths to surge by 2030, cannabis also a risk
May 2, 2025
Smoking and cannabis use are common across the United States, raising growing concerns about their impact on heart health.
Nearly one in four Americans aged 12 or older reports recent tobacco use. And about 13% say they’ve used cannabis in the past month. But new data presented at a recent medical conference show just how serious the health toll of these habits may become.
Researchers from Trinity Health Oakland, Wayne State University, and the Sinai Hospital of Baltimore have shared results that show a sharp increase in heart-related smoking deaths. They also reveal a concerning link between cannabis use disorder and serious heart problems.
Coronary heart disease, caused by narrowed or blocked arteries, continues to be one of the top killers in the U.S. This condition is closely tied to tobacco use. To understand how bad things are getting, scientists analyzed data from the CDC spanning from 1999 to 2020.
Back in 1999, there were 4,669 deaths related to ischemic heart disease and tobacco use. By 2020, that number jumped more than 14 times to 56,367 deaths.
If this trend continues, researchers expect that number could reach over 80,000 by 2030. That’s a projected 43.7% increase in deaths within a decade.
Men and women are affected differently. While deaths among women declined slightly around 2005 and 2015, men saw a steep rise before 2005 and continued to experience higher death rates.
Racial disparities are also evident. Black Americans, American Indian/Alaska Natives, and Asian/Pacific Islanders all experienced sharp increases in early years, with average annual increases above 10 percent.
Black women had one of the most alarming trends, with an average yearly rise in deaths of 10.39%. For white men, it was even higher at 12.01 percent.
“Tobacco-related ischemic heart disease is not just a problem of the past. It is still a major cause of death today,” said Dr. Roopeessh Vempati.
“Our analysis found that risks are not evenly distributed, as Black women experienced the higher annual increases in mortality compared to white women. If we hope to design more targeted interventions, it’s vital for clinicians to recognize that certain racial and geographic groups are disproportionately affected,”
Dr. Vempati noted that stronger, more targeted action through preventative cardiology and public health strategies are needed to reverse these trends and protect the most vulnerable.
Cannabis use disorder (CUD) happens when people experience ongoing problems from cannabis use, interfering with daily life. A separate study looked at how this disorder affects patients already suffering from heart failure.
Using national hospital data from 2016 to 2020, researchers identified 1.37 million patients admitted for heart failure. Of these, 19,445 also had CUD.
The results are concerning. People with both heart failure and CUD were found to be 27% more likely to go into cardiogenic shock. They were also 50% more likely to suffer a heart attack and 48% more likely to experience arrhythmias, or irregular heartbeats.
Surprisingly, they were 50% less likely to die and 75% less likely to experience respiratory failure during their hospital stay compared to heart failure patients without CUD.
“We were surprised to discover individuals with cannabis use disorder and heart failure are at a lower risk of mortality than those without the disorder,” said Dr. Syed Ishaq.
“However, despite a lower chance of death, they are at significantly greater odds of developing other related cardiovascular conditions like heart attack or irregular heartbeat. This understanding is necessary for doctors and public health professionals to warn individuals of the potential side effects of consistent cannabis use from the start, even before heart failure occurs.”
Both studies highlight a growing problem. Smoking-related deaths are still climbing, particularly among certain racial and gender groups. Meanwhile, cannabis use disorder – though it may not immediately increase death risk – poses significant cardiovascular dangers, especially in people already at risk.
Doctors, researchers, and public health leaders face a clear challenge. These findings suggest that a more focused, community-aware approach is needed to reduce the burden on the healthcare system and protect people before their conditions worsen.
The full study was published in the journal JSCAI.
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