Space stocks are no longer a science project. Launches happen weekly and a SpaceX IPO is reportedly weeks away.

RKLB, ASTS, and LUNR each play a different role in the new space economy. Each carries a very different risk profile.

Space Economy: $1 Trillion Addressable Market by 2030

Launch costs have fallen roughly 95% since the Space Shuttle era. That single number is why investors care now.

According to CNBC reporting on Citi research, the global space industry could hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. Bank of America puts the same milestone closer to 2030.

Satellite broadband dominates near-term revenue. Launch services and lunar logistics are smaller but growing faster.

Most US retail investors hold zero direct space exposure. A 2% to 5% theme allocation is enough without overweighting a volatile sector.

Rocket Lab (RKLB): Electron, Neutron, and Defense Contracts

Rocket Lab is the closest thing to a public SpaceX competitor. Electron is the workhorse small launcher. Neutron, the medium-lift rocket, is the 2026 catalyst.

Q1 2026 revenue hit $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year. Backlog crossed $2.2 billion after 31 launch contracts in one quarter, more than all of 2025 combined.

What changed in May 2026

Rocket Lab announced its largest contract ever: a confidential customer booked five Neutron and three Electron launches through 2029. The Department of War added a $190 million block buy of 20 hypersonic test flights using HASTE.

If Neutron flies successfully in 2026, Rocket Lab (RKLB) becomes the only Western alternative to SpaceX for medium-lift payloads. The risk is execution; a failed maiden launch would compress the multiple fast.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Direct-to-Cell Satellite Bet

ASTS is the most speculative name. The thesis: unmodified smartphones connect directly to satellites, no special hardware required.

The FCC granted commercial direct-to-device authorization in April 2026, covering up to 248 satellites on 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum. AT&T and Verizon partnerships are in place.

The April 2026 launch setback

A BlueBird satellite launched on Blue Origin’s New Glenn on April 19 reached an inadequate orbit. The satellite will be de-orbited and New Glenn is grounded by the FAA.

This matters because AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) guided 45 to 60 second-generation BlueBird launches in 2026. Every delay pushes revenue ramp to the right. Position size accordingly.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR): NASA CLPS Program

LUNR is the lunar logistics play. The company won a $180.4 million CLPS task order in March 2026 to deliver seven payloads to the Lunar South Pole using the heavier Nova-D lander.

This is the fifth CLPS contract and the first heavy-class lander win. IM-3 is targeted for the second half of 2026, with Nova-C heading to Reiner Gamma.

Management guided 2026 revenue to $900 million to $1 billion. That is roughly 5x the trailing twelve-month figure of $210 million.

Why the guidance is the whole story

If LUNR delivers near guidance, the stock is mispriced. If lunar missions slip the way they usually do, guidance gets cut. Buy on successful landings, trim on slippage.

ETF UFO Composition and Theme Sizing

The Procure Space ETF (UFO) holds 54 names and gives the cleanest single-ticker exposure. Top holdings include Planet Labs, EchoStar, Sirius XM, Viasat, and Rocket Lab.

The expense ratio runs higher than broad-market funds, so UFO is a theme position, not a portfolio core. See our explainer on expense ratios and ETF cost for context.

How to size the theme

If you already hold a core like VOO or VTI, sizing UFO at 2% to 5% captures upside without making the theme load-bearing. Pairing UFO with a small RKLB position blends ETF risk with single-stock conviction.

SpaceX itself remains private. According to Motley Fool coverage, SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 on April 1, 2026, targeting a June listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Once SpaceX trades publicly, index funds will absorb it through standard inclusion.

Conclusion

RKLB is the most fundamentally grounded name with real revenue, real backlog, and a defense moat. Buy on Neutron progress.

ASTS is a story stock with regulatory wins but execution risk after the April launch failure. Hold small, watch BlueBird cadence.

LUNR is a binary on mission success. Wait for IM-3 results before sizing up.

SpaceX will pull all of these higher into the IPO window, then sort winners from laggards post-listing. Review your current space exposure inside the Gotrade app, build a watchlist of RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, and UFO, and trade them with the same risk discipline you apply to any thematic position.

Open the Gotrade app to review your watchlist, now!

FAQ

Q: Can I invest in SpaceX directly today?
A: Not yet. SpaceX is private but reportedly filed its S-1 in April 2026 for a possible June listing at around $1.75 trillion.

Q: Which space stock is the safest of the three?
A: Rocket Lab (RKLB) has the strongest fundamentals: $200 million Q1 revenue, $2.2 billion backlog, and meaningful defense contracts.

Q: What is the easiest way to get diversified space exposure?
A: The Procure Space ETF (UFO) holds 54 space-related names, including RKLB and ASTS, in one ticker.

Q: Did the April 2026 New Glenn failure permanently hurt ASTS?
A: It pushes the 2026 launch cadence to the right. The thesis is intact if AST hits its 45 to 60 BlueBird target by year-end.

Q: How big should a space theme allocation be?
A: For most retail investors, 2% to 5% of the portfolio is enough exposure without making a volatile theme load-bearing.

Q: What is the catalyst to watch for LUNR?
A: The IM-3 mission landing in the second half of 2026. A clean landing validates the $900 million to $1 billion revenue guidance.