One of the most anticipated initial public offerings (IPOs) in market history will soon be here. SpaceX has confidentially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and is reportedly targeting a June 2026 listing. The $75 billion that SpaceX hopes to raise in the IPO could value the company at $2 trillion-plus, far higher than any previous public offering. That would instantly place it among the six most valuable publicly traded companies in the world, just shy of Amazon.

Another unusual aspect of this IPO is that SpaceX could allocate 30% of its shares to retail investors — at least three times the typical allocation — yet demand for shares is still likely to exceed supply (making it oversubscribed). So, there is potential to get in on the IPO, but it might be expensive. If you manage to purchase $5,000 in SpaceX stock on Day 1, what might that look like five years from now?

What you’re actually buying with SpaceX stock

While the space-launch business is the face of SpaceX, its financial engine is really Starlink, the satellite internet provider. Starlink generated nearly $12 billion in revenue in 2025, roughly 60% of the company’s total revenue. It’s also the only part of the business that’s really profitable at this point. And it is very profitable, with “EBITDA margins” (ratios of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — EBITDA — to net revenue) above 60%.

The launch business is not as profitable at this point, with cash inflows and outflows still roughly equal, but it is operating on a scale that no one can match. It’s truly dominating the global commercial spaceflight market.

You’re also buying a smattering of other Elon Musk businesses, including xAI. Musk says that he wants to launch orbital data centers, hoping to gain an edge over competitors like Alphabet‘s Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. At present, the company is burning cash — about $1 billion per month — while pulling in minimal revenue.

What $5,000 could be worth in five years

A $2 trillion valuation would mean SpaceX stock is trading at roughly 125 times 2025 revenue. That is extremely pricey. It’s higher than Tesla — higher, even, than the famously expensive Palantir Technologies. It’s also historically the kind of multiple that eventually compresses. Still, stocks can carry extremely high multiples for a long time (Palantir being a good example).

The bull case assumes, among other things, that Starlink continues to grow at its current pace and that margins remain high. It also assumes that meaningful progress has been made on making orbital data centers a reality, and that xAI becomes a real contender in the field, and its economics improve considerably.

The base case assumes solid execution, but Starlink’s growth rate is slowing somewhat. It assumes that launch remains dominant and xAI stays in the conversation — orbital data centers are still a long way off, but investors remain excited by the possibility.

The bear case isn’t a doomsday scenario (say, a wider market crash), but it assumes that enough doesn’t go as planned for the stock to be dragged down by its extreme multiple.

Scenario	Annualized Return	$5,000 After 5 Years	Implied 2031 Valuation
Bull case	20%	$12,442	$5.0 trillion
Base case	7%	$7,013	$2.8 trillion
Bear case	(15%)	$2,218	$890 billion

Why I’m skeptical of the bull case

My honest read is that something closer to the bear case unfolds. I think Starlink will continue to grow, and grow fast, but I think there’s more of a ceiling than many assume, especially in the developed world. The technology is most valuable to those with the least access to high-quality telecom infrastructure, which also means that its pricing power is ultimately limited.

And while the company is far ahead at the moment, it will soon face stiff competition from global players like Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) and the Chinese project Qianfan.

Then there’s xAI and the vision of data centers in space. While the idea sounds exciting, to me it’s peak hype — all buzz and no substance. The technical limitations are significant, and the idea that “space is cold” is really a misnomer. Without going into too much detail, space is a vacuum, and that means — contrary to what many believe — that it’s actually much harder, not easier, to cool things down.

There are also plenty of other issues — servicing the data centers, replacing spent graphics processing units (GPUs), protecting them from radiation, transmitting the data back to earth, not to mention the enormous cost of actually launching and assembling these megastructures — making me extremely skeptical of the vision. And I think the more you read into it, the more you will be too.

And all this distracts from the fact that xAI is a wildly unprofitable business with no clear path to changing that.

The bottom line on the SpaceX IPO

Of course, the bearish take is my opinion, and plenty of analysts would point to the bull case as being the most likely outcome.

So what a $5,000 investment looks like five years from now could be very different depending on what we see from SpaceX. That’s the nature of high-multiple, high-growth companies. Their futures are much more uncertain — and the endpoints more divergent.