• TSLA shares just logged their lowest weekly close in nearly eight months, extending losses to eight straight weeks.
• Prediction markets imply a 15% odds of a SpaceX IPO before June.
• Merz has over 228,000 followers on X and has even drawn appreciation from Musk himself in the past for her “unwavering support.” 

Prediction markets are now increasingly pushing expectations for a SpaceX IPO beyond June, and an influential Tesla retail investor feels that shares of Elon Musk’s EV maker could see a lift if a stock-for-stock deal follows shortly afterward.

TSLA stock ended at its lowest weekly close in nearly eight months, extending its losing streak to eight straight weeks.

Contracts on Kalshi currently imply 15% odds of a SpaceX IPO before June, rising to about 70% before July and about 80% before August. Similarly, Polymarket shows only about 11% probability of a mid-June listing, but nearly 47% by the end of June and over 90% by September.

Alexandra Merz, the CEO of L&F Investor Services — who also goes by the handle @TeslaBoomerMama on X — said in an interview with Tesla-focused X influencer Curious Pejjy that she still sees a narrow early-June window as possible. “I do wish to happen that this IPO of SpaceX happens at the beginning of June. My date is still June 9,” she said.

“In that three-week window, they announce that SpaceX will acquire Tesla,” she said, referring to her “best theory” rather than confirmed plans. She said the merger could link both companies’ share prices through merger-arbitrage trading.

“From that moment of the announcement, Tesla stock is in lockstep with SpaceX stock,” she said, adding that arbitrage funds typically align price movements between acquirer and target following a stock-for-stock proposal. 

Merz has over 228,000 followers on X and has even drawn appreciation from Musk himself in the past for her “unwavering support.” 

In a separate March note posted on X, Merz said SpaceX could list at roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation with about $75 billion of float, potentially triggering $15 billion to $25 billion of passive buying from Nasdaq-100 index trackers within weeks of listing.

She also outlined a stock-for-stock acquisition scenario in which Tesla shareholders could receive a premium. “Only Tesla holders capture the acquisition premium,” she said, adding that early sellers could miss both the premium and passive-fund demand tailwinds tied to index adjustments. 

She also described a scenario in which the combined entity could inherit Tesla’s existing S&P 500 position, allowing index funds to increase holdings earlier than they otherwise could for a standalone SpaceX listing. Merz added that the resulting index-reweighting process could generate “hundreds of billions in total demand,” depending on float levels at the time of inclusion.

During the interview, Merz also pointed to State Street’s ownership position as a factor that could affect the timing of any potential deal. She noted that Texas derivative-lawsuit rules allow such actions only by investors holding at least 3% of the shares outstanding and said State Street’s over-3 % stake could become relevant in a merger scenario.

“I actually think it could very well happen in the next couple of months due to the SpaceX merger, if that happens,” she said.

Investor interest in a potential SpaceX listing has also intensified as analysts increasingly include the company as part of a broader AI infrastructure stack spanning launch systems, satellites, connectivity and compute. SpaceX reportedly generated over $18.5 billion in revenue last year while investing $13 billion in chips and data-center infrastructure to support xAI.

“SpaceX, across Musk’s constellation of assets, has a plausible path to owning every single layer. Chips. Models. Data. Internet delivery. And the rockets to put it all wherever physics allows. No other company has that opportunity,” Deepwater Asset Management co-founder Gene Munster said.

Momentum across the sector also strengthened after NASA confirmed a “textbook touchdown” for the crew of Artemis II following their 10-day lunar mission, raising optimism for space programs that support launch providers such as SpaceX.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Tesla improved slightly to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ levels over the past week amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward SpaceX eased to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ territory last week amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “ARE WE GRABBING $TSLA 420 CALLS FOR THE SPACEX IPO ON 04/20?”

Another user said, “this [TSLA] will go up now on anticipation of a Tesla/spacex merger, buy the rumor sell the news. “

TSLA stock has fallen 22% so far this year, ranking as the second-worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven,” behind Microsoft.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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