Stocks are falling again, heading for a fifth straight week of losses
March 21, 2025
Stocks closed in the green, eking out a small gain Friday and snapping a four-week losing streak.
After opening sharply lower, leading indexes moved higher in afternoon trading, buoyed by President Trump suggesting he’s willing to be flexible as the U.S. negotiates over tariffs with trading partners. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Complex each ended up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%.
The reversal amounts to a break from the recent gloom that has settled over financial markets. Investors have pulled back as they gauge the potential risks from the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies, as well as forecasts for slower U.S. economic growth.
“This is a very uncertain time,” said Christopher Low of FHN Financial. “There’s a tendency to worry, and worry translates into selling.”
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday predicted that the nation’s gross domestic product this year would fall to 1.7%, a sharp decline from 2.8% in 2024. Policymakers also expect inflation to edge up in 2025 before abating the following year. For now, by contrast, the odds of a recession remain low, according to the central bank.
“I expect GDP growth this year to step down from last year’s pace in part because of a slowdown in labor force growth due to lower immigration rates,” John Williams, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a speech Friday.
One indication the economy is losing speed — FedEx shares sank 10% Friday after it warned the previous day that its revenues are flattening and lowered its profit guidance. The delivery giant, along with rival UPS, is seen as a measure of broader economic activity. Other company earnings also have disappointed.
“High borrowing costs and elevated economic policy uncertainty will lead to business investment stagnating this year. Survey measures of investment intentions have fallen sharply in response to the threats of tariffs and spending cuts,” analysts with Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a report Friday.
Leading market indexes have slumped in recent weeks after reaching record highs in February, and Wall Street analysts expect trading to remain choppy. One key potential catalyst will come on April 2, when U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with so-called reciprocal tariffs on other countries, are set to take effect.
A survey of money managers from Bank of America this week showed that institutional investors are pulling out of U.S. equities in favor of more stable geographic regions.
Even generally bullish market analysts are striking a note of caution given the mounting uncertainty caused by Mr. Trump’s economic policies.
“We continue to bet on the resilience of the consumer, the economy and corporate earnings, but we reckon that heightened recession fears will weigh on valuation multiples,” Ed Yardeni, president of investment adviser Yardeni Research, told investors in a note. “We acknowledge that the risks of a recession and a bear market might continue to increase. It all depends on the often-unpredictable President, who frequently — and proudly — has referred to himself as ‘Tariff Man,’ reflecting his strong support for protectionist trade policies.”
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